Snow Advisory 2, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WWUS44 KMOB 080249
WSWMOB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
849 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2008

...SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTH ALABAMA...

.ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE HALF INCH NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEW AUGUSTA MISSISSIPPI TO
GREENVILLE ALABAMA. IN THESE AREAS...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW TOWARD MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH.

ALZ051>058-MSZ067-075-076-080400-
/O.CAN.KMOB.SN.Y.0002.080308T0300Z-080308T1500Z/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...
LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...
NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN
849 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2008

...SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS CANCELLED THE SNOW
ADVISORY. 

ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE
HALF INCH NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEW AUGUSTA MISSISSIPPI TO GREENVILLE
ALABAMA. IN THESE AREAS...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH
LIGHT SNOW TOWARD MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH.

FARTHER SOUTH...A COLD PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
719 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2008

.UPDATED...IN ADDITION TO RAIN...ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE GRIDDED
WEATHER PACKAGE. THOUGHTS ON STORMS...BELOW IN SHORT TERM PACKAGE.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE SYSTEM...IF STORMS BUILD TO SEVERE
LEVELS TODAY...THEY WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL PRODUCERS. 10/JM

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WEATHER MAP THIS MORNING SHOWS SFC
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI...JUST AS WE
EXPECTED. UPON INITIALIZING THE POSITION OF THE LOW AT MIDNIGHT WITH
THE FORECAST MODELS OF THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/ECMWF AND RUC...THE GFS
COMES CLOSEST TO THE OFFICIAL. HOWEVER...THERE ARE TWO LOWS IN THE
GFS. THE FIRST OVER THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI LIFTS QUICKLY UP
INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY LOW COMES
UP OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG
UPPER ENERGY AND HEIGHT FALLS MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS...A
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW COULD INDEED FORM. FIRST WAVE OF RAIN AND A
FEW STORMS WILL BE MOVING OUT TO THE EAST...BUT MORE COOLER CLOUD
TOPS OVER EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA SLIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY AS
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. THUS...SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER INSTABILITY
ALOFT...CANT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS. WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS 8-9KFT
TODAY SUGGEST THAT STORMS COULD BE EFFICIENT IN HAIL PRODUCTION.
SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...A
CHALLENGE HERE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE LOW. MAXES IN THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST ZONES TO MID/UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TONIGHT ANOTHER CHALLENGE. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...UPPER
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH AND BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILES LOWERING
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C/32F...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO RECEIVE
SOME LIGHT SLEET/SNOW REPORTS LATE TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. AT THIS TIME...FORECASTERS ARE ANTICIPATING LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS. BUT THIS COULD CHANGE UPON THE ARRIVAL OF NEW DATA
TODAY. WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS ARE BEING ISSUED FROM OUR NEIGHBORS TO
THE NORTH. STAY TUNED. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. 10/JM

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER TROF CONTINUES OVER
THE FCST AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL WHILE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING
INTO THE AREA AND WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION (AT LEAST INITIALLY
BEFORE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL) LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND.
SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SUNDAY MAY TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S. SFC HIGH
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EAST BY MONDAY EVENING WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP...THUS TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEEKS
END...BUT WILL STILL REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THERE MAY BE A
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWER OVER INLAND ZONES EARLY SATURDAY...BUT
THEN EXPECT A RAINFREE FCST FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW END CHANCE POPS INTERMITTENTLY
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVE WEST TO EAST IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORIES FOR SMALL CRAFT AS MODERATE TO
STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO THE DAY SATURDAY.
WINDS DECREASE AND SEAS SUBSIDE FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES BY
MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...FORECAST TO PASS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ON TUESDAY...RESULTS IN AN INCREASE IN
NORTHEAST FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD. 10/JM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND ALONG THE GULF
COASTAL AREAS OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.
THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE REGION
BY DAYBREAK TODAY...THEN ONLY LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR STORMS TODAY AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
GROUND WILL BE WET FROM RAIN TODAY AND REMAIN MOIST AS MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. THESE CLOUDY SKIES AND SMALL PCPN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS UPPER TROF WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS
OVER THE REGION. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  35  54  31 /  70  30  05  10
PENSACOLA   65  41  54  34 /  70  30  10  10
DESTIN      68  42  55  38 /  70  30  10  10
EVERGREEN   63  40  50  29 /  70  30  10  10
WAYNESBORO  57  33  49  27 /  70  30  05  05
CAMDEN      60  35  49  29 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
315 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2008

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-0
81200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
315 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND
THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

THE LOW WHICH BROUGHT THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WILL
BRING WHAT ARE CALLED WRAPAROUND CLOUDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH VERY COLD AIR TONIGHT. IT IS LIKELY THAT
PRECIPITATION FALLING FROM THESE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN EARLY THIS
EVENING AS RAIN...FOLLOWED BY RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW LATE THIS
EVENING...THEN TURNING INTO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA ARE LIKELY TO
RECEIVE FROM ONE HALF TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT. A DUSTING OF LESS
THAN A HALF INCH EXPECTED FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FAR WEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE... STONE AND GEORGE COUNTIES MISSISSIPPI...AND
COVINGTON... ESCAMBIA...INLAND MOBILE...AND INLAND BALDWIN COUNTIES
ALABAMA. HEAVIEST SNOW BANDING WILL BE ABOUT 35 MILES EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM NEAR WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI TO NEAR LUVERNE ALABAMA.

STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO ALL
NAVIGATION. GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT TONIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 15 FEET
OFFSHORE. THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG AREA BEACHES DUE TO
STRONG WEST WINDS.

AREA RESIDENTS SHOULD REFRAIN FROM UNNECESSARY TRAVEL TONIGHT DUE TO
RISK OF SLICK ROADS. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL
BROADCAST MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

ELEVATED SEA STATE WILL CONTINUE BRINGING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO
SMALL CRAFT SATURDAY EVENING.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY. SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS OR EMERGENCY MANAGERS MAY BE REQUIRED
TONIGHT.