Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
342 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

.SYNOPSIS...FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST...BIGGEST ITEM TO DEAL WITH IS
THE ONGOING WEATHER OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER
DYNAMICS PART OF THIS WEATHER IS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION TO THESE
SHORTWAVES...THERE IS A CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN/EASTERN
GULF OF MEX. RIDGE HAS BUILT NORTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO OVER
EASTERN CA. WITH THE RIDGE A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN ANTICIPATED
YESTERDAY...THE EFFECT OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS IS AFFECTING MORE OF THE
FA THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE...THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STRETCHING FROM THE TX
GULF COAST TO NEAR KERI. SURFACE TEMPS SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN SE-RN CONUS WERE
HOVERING AROUND 80(COOLER ALONG THE GULF COAST)...WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE MOST ACTIVE AREA...RESULTING IN GOOD
INSTABILITY TO FEED THE WEATHER FIRE. HELPING TO MAINTAIN ON ONSHORE
FLOW IS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.....STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SC/GA/N-RN FL ATLANTIC
SEABOARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...THIS CURRENT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS SWING
EAST...THEN NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE COMES INTO PLAY...WITH THE
TRAILING FRONT SLOWING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FA BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING. THIS FRONT IS BEING FORECASTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
20-60NM MARINE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP
AS A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE GULF SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE FA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...HELPING TO
MAINTAIN AN OFFSHORE FLOW INTO MONDAY.

HAVE KEPT THE SEVERE WORDING OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT AS THE INSTABILITY WEAKENS AND THE UPPER DYNAMICS PULL
AWAY NORTHEAST...AM EXPECTING THE ONGOING PRECIP TO WEAKEN. THERE IS
SOME VARYING INTERPRETATIONS OF HOW FAR THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE
TRAILING FRONT WILL PUSH. GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER/FASTER THAN THE
NAM/MET...RESULTING IN HIGHS FOR SATURDAY ABOUT 4 DEGREES ON AVERAGE
COOLER....AND THE PRECIP ENDING SOONER (SHOWN IN THE LOWER POPS MOST
OF THE AREA). HAVE WENT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH FOR NOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH AGREES PRETTY MUCH WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN.

SUNDAY...STILL HAVE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP SHIELD
WILL SPREAD. 12Z GFS HAS PUSHED THE SHIELD FARTHER NORTH FROM THE 00Z
RUN...WHILE THE NAM HAS MAINTAINED MORE CONTINUITY. HAVE BUMPED THE
LATEST GFS SOLUTION DOWN A BIT AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY ON)...BY THE END OF THE DAY MONDAY...SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS RE-ASSERTED ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AS A SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...DIRECTING THE
UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND KEEPING ANY FRONT FROM
APPROACHING THE FA. WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN BEING OVER THE
WESTERN-MOST PARTS OF THE FA AND POINTS WEST.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOSTLY TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. A LIGHT
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAVE
A TRAILING FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE
SATURDAY...WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND
AN APPROACHING SYSTEM...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONG THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...WEAK
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM...THEN LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO THE COMING WEEK. SOME DRYING OUT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY...BUT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITERIA
LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  76  58  80  61 /  90  70  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   67  73  60  78  63 /  80  80  10  20  10
DESTIN      66  73  62  77  64 /  70  80  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   64  74  53  80  56 /  90  80  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  58  74  49  80  54 / 100  60  10  10  10
CAMDEN      62  71  52  80  55 / 100  70  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
555 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-051200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
555 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT  THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ROTATING
SUPERCELLS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT...MOSTLY DURING
MAX HEATING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE STRONGER STORMS.

THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA
BEACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA
BEACHES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS EASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BUILD
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.