Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
823 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008

.SHORT TERM UPDATE (TONIGHT)...DEEPEST PRESSURE FALLS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE RIGHT NOW AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW...WITH A 1.5 MB/3 HR NEGATIVE AXIS JUST WEST OF OUR AREA
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.  MARINE LAYER MOVED FAR ENOUGH INLAND
TODAY TO BRING DOWN THE INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS LIMITED TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OR OUR AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING.  HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A CATEGORY DOWNGRADE
IN THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM MODERATE TO SLIGHT RISK, WE STILL
NOTE THE KMOB VAD WIND PROFILES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGLY
ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SEVERE STORMS IF WE
GET A DECENT SHOT OF INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER, RIGHT NOW THE
INSTABILITY IS DEFINITELY LIMITED TO THE EAST OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA
RIGHT NOW.

FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE MAIN THREAT OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL
BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE AXIS OF SOMEWHAT
GREATER INSTABILITY AND CLOSER TO THE GREATER DYNAMIC FORCING ALONG
THE 850 MB JET AXIS. THE 00Z SLIDELL HODOGRAPH WAS VERY STREAMWISE
WITH 728 M2/S2.  MOST OF THAT SHEAR IS IN THE LOWEST 1.5 KM.  A KEY
INGREDIENT THAT IS LACKING (SO FAR) IS THE INSTABILITY.  IT APPEARS
THE ONSET OF OUR MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LATE
TONIGHT AS THE SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
AND THE COLD POOL STARTS TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS I-65.  THAT WOULD
MEAN THE PRIMARY MODE FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE IN BOWING SEGMENTS
ALONG THE LINE...STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES
LATE TONIGHT.

ALSO..GETTING SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING REPORTED ALONG THE HIGHWAY
90 CAUSEWAY BETWEEN MOBILE AND SPANISH FORT.  MOST LIKELY DUE TO
SPLASH OVER GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AND THAT WE ARE NEAR
HIGH TIDE.  ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT ADDRESSING THAT ISSUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  /05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND
     WILCOX.

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: MOBILE BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1045 AM CST MON MAR 3 2008

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-041700-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
1045 AM CST MON MAR 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND
THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH
TEXAS TODAY...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN TEXAS INTO
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS TO DEVELOP. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL OR WESTERN
TENNESSEE TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...AN INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME GUSTS OF 30
TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL ZONES.

THESE STRONG WINDS COMBINE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO
55 TO 65 KNOTS ABOUT 5000 FEET. THIS CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION
AND INCREASED SPEED...ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...SUGGESTS THAT A POTENTIAL
OUTBREAK IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING.

LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SCATTERED SUPERCELL STORMS WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...PRIMARILY MISSISSIPPI
AND EXTREME WESTERN ALABAMA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE THAT WILL BE JUST AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT THE SQUALL LINE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI ZONES DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BETWEEN
9 PM AND MIDNIGHT...THEN INTO AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SQUALL LINE EXITS THE
REGION BETWEEN 6 AM 9 AM TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD AND POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE IS A CONCERN WITH THE LINE...ESPECIALLY IN
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. ALSO...ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG THE LINE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE INCREASED WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL RESULT
IN BUILDING SEAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO BRING A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA
BEACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS CAN MAKE DRIVING
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SOME LINGERING AFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON DAY ONE CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 9 AM TUESDAY...BUT THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AND HIGH
SEAS WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION BEGINNING LATE TODAY AND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.