Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
545 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

.SHORT TERM TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH LACK OF AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER
WATER VAPOR IN LOW LEVELS...CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE FA WOULD BE
LIMITED...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN MOST PLACES. THERE IS A COLD POOL
ALOFT IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AT ABOUT 500 MB.
MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF THERE WERE A
DEEPER LAYER OF WATER VAPOR...BUT AS IT STANDS NOW THE WV ONLY
REACHES ABOUT 950 TO 900 MB. NONETHELESS WITH AN ELEVATED WET
MICROBURST RISK TODAY...WE NOTE AN OCCASIONAL PULSE SEVERE CELL
COULD FORM. INCREASING CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT DENSE FOG AT
MOB...LESSER CHANCE ELSEWHERE. /77

&&

.LONG TERM MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. STILL MAY SEE ISOLATED
COVERAGE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS THROUGH MID WEEK DURING THE
TRANSITION PERIOD. OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE RAIN-FREE. EASTERN
CONUS UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH RETURNS THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL BRING AT
LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE BACK INTO THE PICTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. /22

&&

.MARINE...THAT LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE MARINE AREA HAS TRIGGERED A
GALE FORECAST BY THE GFS BUT THE EURO...BRIT...AND NAM ARE NOT GOING
FOR IT. CANNOT REALLY SEE MUCH HAPPENING UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER WEST. BRETSCHNEIDER WAVE FORECASTING METHODOLOGY APPEARS TO
BE IN CONGRUENCE WITH GWW OUTPUT. CANNOT SEE ANYTHING OVER 8 FEET
USING THE CURRENT WINDS FORECAST EVEN WITH A 100 MILE FETCH...AND
THIS LOOKS MORE LIKE 80 NM. WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS TO
SCA ONLY AND ONLY WELL OFFSHORE TODAY...SMALL CRAFT CAUTION FROM THE
BEACH TO 20 MILES...AND TO AROUND 15 KNOTS IN MOBILE BAY. WINDS AND
SEAS DECREASE MONDAY INTO MID WEEK AS A HIGH TAKES OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF AND THE LOW MOVES WEST. HOWEVER KEEPING SEAS UP A WHILE TO
ALLOW FOR REFLECTED WAVE ENERGY ALONG SOME SHORELINES. /77

NHC AND LIX WE ARE MUCH APPRECIATIVE OF COORDINATION EFFORT.

&&

.AVIATION 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
MOST OF THE FA.   CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE TURBULENCE AND CONVECTIVE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INCREASING TO THE NORTH. CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
DENSE FOG AT KMOB AND LESS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. /77

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEK..WITH VERY HIGH DISPERSION EXPECTED DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      93  76  92  76 /  30  20  40  10
PENSACOLA   91  78  90  77 /  20  20  40  10
DESTIN      89  78  90  78 /  20  20  40  10
EVERGREEN   92  73  95  72 /  20  10  30  10
WAYNESBORO  97  74  97  72 /  20  10  30  10
CAMDEN      97  74  96  72 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
542 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-041045-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
542 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL LOW IS PASSING SOUTH OF THE MARINE AREA AND BRING INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS WELL OFFSHORE INTO MONDAY. THE AREA OF INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS IS VERY LIMITED AND WILL DECREASE INTO MID WEEK AS A HIGH
MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS NOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1239 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

MSZ078-079-031830-
GEORGE-STONE-
1239 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GEORGE AND STONE COUNTIES...

AT 1234 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BASIN...MOVING WEST AT 18 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
BENNDALE...RAMSEY SPRINGS AND BEATRICE THROUGH 130 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS
STRONG COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
217 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

MSZ075-076-079-032000-
GEORGE-PERRY-GREENE-
217 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GEORGE...PERRY AND GREENE
COUNTIES...

AT 213 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LEAF...MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
JANICE THROUGH 300 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS
STRONG COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.