Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR SHORT TERM TEXT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
550 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

.SHORT TERM TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED MOSTLY NEAR
THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST STRETCHING WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN OR WEAKEN THROUGH
THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING SE
ACROSS THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...
NAM...GFS AND RUC ARE ALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS MORNING DEPICTING
DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
TO BECOME MODIFIED WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WITH THIS PATTERN BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED BY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...TRACKING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.
DUE TO THE DRIER ALOFT ADVECTING SE ACROSS THE CWFA LATER TODAY SOME
STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. PONDING OF WATER OR LOCALIZED STREET
FLOODING ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA CANT BE
RULED OUT...ALSO. FOR LATER TONIGHT MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST
OF THE REGION GIVING WAY TO DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE BY EARLY SUN
MORNING. WILL USE THE WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THROUGH
TONIGHT. /32

&&

.LONG TERM SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...SO AGAIN WILL BE LOOKING FOR AN
EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DYING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A NORTHERLY
FLOW ABOVE 700 MB IN THE POST SHORTWAVE ENVIRONMENT...ALONG WITH
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS MEANS A LESSER
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL BE ISOLATED TO
LOW END SCATTERED THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER...06Z GFS HAS BEGUN TO
SHOW SIGNS THAT THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SUPPORTING
DYNAMICS SHOULD RETURN ON THURSDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RETURN TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE FOR THURSDAY...AND
FURTHER UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED. /22

&&

.MARINE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED
OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL GENERALLY MOVE IN A EAST TO SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS FROM THE WEST OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF. /32

&&

.FIRE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR EARLY MORNING NEAR SHORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP FURTHER INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL OCCUR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK...AND LIMITING THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.  /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  71  88  72 /  80  40  60  20
PENSACOLA   86  72  86  73 /  90  50  60  30
DESTIN      83  76  86  75 /  90  50  60  40
EVERGREEN   86  70  88  69 /  90  40  60  20
WAYNESBORO  88  69  89  67 /  60  30  40  20
CAMDEN      86  70  89  69 /  80  30  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
600 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-151200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
600 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. DUE TO
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
WHERE POOR DRAINAGE USUALLY OCCURS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE TODAY...POSSIBLY MAKING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF
THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOUR AREA.

THE WET MICROBURST THREAT FOR TODAY IS MODERATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.
OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. STAY TUNED FOR
FURTHER UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1156 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

FLZ003-141730-
INLAND SANTA ROSA-
1156 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER NORTHERN SANTA ROSA
COUNTY...

AT 1156 AM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR JAY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 14 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
BERRYDALE THROUGH 1230 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING... AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.