Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...DIDNT HAVE 12Z
GFS TODAY...JUST NOW COMING IN.  BASICALLY USED A BLEND OF 12Z NAM
AND PREVIOUS FCST (PREVIOUS GFS) FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. MODELS HAD
PREVIOUSLY BEEN CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING THE SFC RIDGE OVER
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE FCST
PERIOD...AND DID NOT SEE ANY MAJOR CHANGES WITH 12Z NAM AND INCOMING
12Z GFS. WEAK BOUNDARY STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO
ALABAMA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...PRIMARILY NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY. BECOMING DRY AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AS BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND RIDING REBUILDS OVER THE REGION.
BASICALLY HOT AND DRY FCST DEVELOPING AGAIN BY END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...MADE NO CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS LONG TERM AS THIS MORNINGS 12Z GFS WAS NOT AVAILABLE UNTIL
LATE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NOTED IN 12Z ECMWF. 12/DS

&

.MARINE....A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. A MORE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR
TWO FEET FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THEN INCREASE TO 2-4 FEET ON
THURSDAY. 13/JC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND AGAIN OVER PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH SURFACE
HUMIDITY GENERALLY ABOVE 45 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY RAIN FREE... BUT CONTINUED WARM
AND HUMID. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  91  72  91 /  10  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   73  89  76  88 /  10  05  05  10
DESTIN      74  88  76  86 /  10  05  05  10
EVERGREEN   69  91  69  91 /  20  20  10  05
WAYNESBORO  69  91  70  93 /  20  05  05  05
CAMDEN      69  91  69  92 /  30  20  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
545 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-021200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
545 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 800 PM
THIS EVENING. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA
OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOUR AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA MAY RESULT
IN HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.  NO OTHER FORMS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER ARE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING. STAY TUNED
FOR FURTHER UPDATES.