Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2008

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...ONGOING CONVECTION WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS TIME PERIOD. CURRENTLY A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
AND WILL BE ENTERING OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES WITHIN THE
NEXT TWO HOURS. SPC HAS JUST ISSUED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 258 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM THAT INCLUDES OUR FIVE MS COUNTIES AND THE THREE
AL COUNTIES THAT BORDER THE STATE LINE AS ISOLATED STORMS ARE
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE. IT WILL BE THESE ISOLATED CELLS
THAT HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO BECOME TORNADIC. LAPS DATA SHOWS
THE BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
MS ZONES AND THIS AREA WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE
MORNING. WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY BECOME THE DOMINATE THREAT BY LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LINE IS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOW
AS IT MOVES ACROSS DUE THE UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE
RECOVERED TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND THE SLOWING MOVEMENT OF THE LINE
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN TOTALS. MOST AREAS WILL
RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE CELLS TRAIN FOR ANY PERIOD OF TIME. THUS
THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN. A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES INTO THE
EXTENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RUN
NEAR 80 ON SUNDAY AND TO THE LOWER 80S ON MONDAY. LOWS WILL RUN IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST. /13

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW MUGGY CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK RATHER
SLIM THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST...LIKELY CAPPING OFF DEVELOPMENT. /13

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING WILL MOVE GRADUALLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OFF THE ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS WELL.
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WELL DEVELOPED SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT NEARS. /05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRIER AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SUN THROUGH
TUE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE BUT DURATION DOES NOT LOOK LONG ENOUGH TO
SATISFY A FIRE WX WATCH. A LONGER DURATION ON MONDAY MAY REQUIRE A
WATCH/WARNING IN LATER FORECASTS. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      80  55  81  54 /  80  20  00  00
PENSACOLA   76  57  81  57 /  80  20  00  00
DESTIN      75  61  78  60 /  80  30  00  00
EVERGREEN   78  54  79  49 /  80  20  00  00
WAYNESBORO  79  53  79  49 /  90  10  00  00
CAMDEN      78  54  78  50 /  90  10  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...AND WASHINGTON.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND
     WAYNE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

13.JC
05.JG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
450 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2008

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-040000-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
450 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND
THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THIS
MORNING...MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE COULD BE SEVERE
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  THE
MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS MORNING WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT BORDERING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWESTERN
ALABAMA.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65 IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...IT WILL SLOW A BIT.  THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME LOCATIONS COULD BECOME
EXCESSIVE.  THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE IF THE
SQUALL LINE SLOWS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.

STRONG SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN RESULT IN
AN INCREASED RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IN THE SURF ZONE ALONG
AREA BEACHES.  THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS
MORNING WILL ALSO POSE A HAZARD TO BOATERS.

THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
TODAY.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TODAY.