Marine Weather Statement 9, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1005 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008

.UPDATE...UPDATED SKY CONDITION...MAINLY WESTERN HALF TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLEARING EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS JUST A TAD DUE TO A BIT MORE SUN. LEFT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG COAST FROM GULF SHORES TO OKALOOSA
COUNTY...BELIEVE THESE WILL BE OUT TO SEA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. /11

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.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST SFC MAP SHOWS A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL MS TO EAST CENTRAL LA PROGGED TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWFA LATER THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MOSTLY NORTH OF THE
CWFA NEAR A WARM FRONT STRETCHING EAST TO WEST OVER NORTH AL AND N
GA. DUE BELIEVE WILL SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH OVER OUR
AREA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT NEARS REMAINING MOSTLY BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS AND GENERALLY SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE. BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SFC COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE EAST
OF THE CWFA GIVING WAY TO BREEZY AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT WINDS
BECOME NORTH ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST
AREAS. WILL USE STAY CLOSE TO THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR TODAY AND
LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV NUMBER FOR TONIGHT. /32

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND COOL NIGHTS.  A LONGWAVE TROF SWINGS INTO
THE WESTERN STATES MEANWHILE WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF
EVOLVING INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST STATES BY
FRIDAY.  500 MB RIDING WEAKENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH A FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  A CANADIAN SYSTEM BRINGS A TRAILING FRONT DOWN
INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES ON WEDNESDAY...BUT MUCH LIKE THE LAST
TWO EVENTS IN OUR AREA...RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL TEND TO
HOLD THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA.  THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI ON
THURSDAY THEN GRADUALLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  STAYED WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS...THEN THIS WOULD KEEP
SEVERE CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR AREA.  WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AS THE POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL DICTATE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
RISK AREA.  NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH MILD NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA LATER TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
A STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED...CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A LIGHT
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY MORNING BECOMING
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. /32

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPANDED THE DURATION OF THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON MONDAY GIVEN SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS.  KBDI INDEX IS RATHER LOW ACROSS THE AREA SO HELD OFF ON
A WATCH FOR THE ALABAMA COUNTIES.  ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY DUE TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      83  53  82  56 /  30  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   86  59  82  60 /  30  00  00  00
DESTIN      85  62  80  62 /  30  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   84  52  82  48 /  30  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  80  50  82  48 /  30  00  05  05
CAMDEN      80  53  81  50 /  30  00  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...COASTAL WALTON...INLAND ESCAMBIA...
     INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...COASTAL WALTON...INLAND ESCAMBIA...
     INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

29 EVERSOLE
32 ESBENSEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
556 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-121200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
550 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST WILL GIVE WAY TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A INCREASED RISK FOR WILDFIRES CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY DUE TO CRITICALLY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SEVERE WEATHER
SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.