Small Craft Advisory 50, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
417 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT/MONDAY...SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE OFFSHORE MARTIN COUNTY
ABOUT 00Z. BEHIND IT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT SEVERE THREAT IS ENDING WITH PASSAGE OF SQUALL LINE.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVC OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN
THE 50S N/C AND LOWER 60S TREASURE COAST.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST SO EXPECT BREEZY WEST
WINDS WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MAINLY ALG THE TREASURE COAST BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD BE DRY.
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND COLD
FRONT. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY... A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA AS A CONTINENTAL RIDGE DROPS DOWN OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND PUSHES ACROSS THE SRN TIER STATES. DESPITE NEAR FULL
SUN...STRONG DRY/COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S
AREAWIDE...ABOUT 10-15 BLO CLIMO. AN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER THE INTERIOR TUE NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE PUSHES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/FL PENINSULA...MIN TEMPS IN THE
U30/L40S WOULD BE 15-20F BLO CLIMO. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RIDGE PUSHES OFFSHORE...TEMPS NEAR THE COAST
MAY HOLD IN THE M/U40S.

WED-SAT...
THE POSITIVE PNA PATTERN WHICH HAS DOMINATED THE FL WX PATTERN FOR
THE PAST MONTH WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.  THIS
PATTERN TYPICALLY RESULTS RAPID FROPAS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...
KEEPING TEMPS AOB CLIMO.  IT ALSO LIMITS THE AMOUNT OF TIME FOR
MOISTURE RETURN AS POST FRONTAL DRY AIR OFTEN REQUIRES A GOOD 48HRS
TO MODIFY TO THE POINT WHERE IT CAN SUPPORT PRECIP.

INDEED...MID RANGE MOS GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BLO
CLIMO THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.  MODELS INDICATE A NEW COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  HOWEVER...WITH PW
VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL AS LOW AS 0.2 BY DAYBREAK WED...THE WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED.  WILL
BOOKMARK THE EVENT WITH 20% POPS FRI/FRI NIGHT...OTHERWISE NO SIG
PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CRANK THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA BY DAYBREAK MON...WITH A SECONDARY SURGE
OF COLD AIR ARRIVING ON TUESDAY. THE PGRAD SHOULD SUPPORT A
MODERATE TO FRESH WRLY FLOW THROUGH MON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NW
ON TUE. WHILE THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL LIMIT WAVE
DEVELOPMENT...IT ALSO WILL GENERATE CHOPPY SHORT PD SEAS WITHIN A
FEW NAUTICAL MILES OF THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MID
WEEK AS A RIDGE AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...RESULTING IN
A MUCH WEAKER PGRAD WHILE ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  53  69  45  60 /  40  10  20  10
MCO  54  69  46  63 /  50  10  20  10
MLB  57  74  50  64 /  60  10  20  10
VRB  63  73  51  65 /  60  20  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
     NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
     BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

     TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INDIAN RIVER-
     MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-OKEECHOBEE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST.
     LUCIE.

     TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OSCEOLA.

AM...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

KELLY