Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
950 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

.DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE HAS MADE A RESURGENCE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED OVER HALF AN INCH IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS (TO 2.18 @ XMR). CLOUD COVER THAT CREATED POTENTIAL
DELAYS FOR SB INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE BREAKING AT MID MORNING AND
WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY HINDER STORM DEVELOPMENT THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE GULF COAST N OF
TAMPA BAY WILL TRANSLATE TO THE INTERIOR INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WEAK
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN H5 FLOW WL ADD ADTL FACTOR FOR PARCEL ASCENT.
COUPLED WITH AFTN HEATING AND SLOW SW STEERING FLOW...EXPECT A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN SOME THAT SEE STRONG AND PERSISTENT
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS MENTION
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TO NMRS SHRA WITH EMBEDDED AFTN TSRA AREAWIDE.
POTENTIAL FOR LONGER LASTING PCPN FM ISM-MCO-SFB-DAB AFT 16Z WITH
SCT STORMS AFFECTING ROUTES FM COF-MLB-FPR-SUA AFT 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...WIND WAVES TODAY 2 FT OR LESS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE...ESP NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....KELLY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
834 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-212100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
834 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MORNING
CLOUDINESS WILL DELAY HEATING UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT HEATING AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.

STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES INLAND FROM THE COAST. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST LATE THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND SMALL HAIL.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
HIGH MOISTURE AND SOUTHWEST STEERING WINDS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN A FEW SLOWER MOVING AND PERSISTENT CELLS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WILL BE MOST COMMON IN AREAS THAT SEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING ONCE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

PENDERGRAST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1210 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

FLZ044-211700-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
1210 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY...

AT 1209 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG STORM BETWEEN EMERALDA AND FRUITLAND PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 13 MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL HAIL...PEA TO DIME SIZE...WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

THIS STORM WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
STRIKES...DEFINED AS 12 OR MORE CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES PER MINUTE.
SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING OR HARD TOPPED AUTOMOBILE. OPEN
SHELTERS FOUND IN PARKS...ON BEACHES OR GOLF COURSES OFFER NO
PROTECTION FROM THE DANGERS OF LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON
SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING
AND LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

STATE LAW REQUIRES HEADLIGHTS TO BE TURNED ON WHEN WINDSHIELD WIPERS
ARE IN USE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1216 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

FLZ044-211700-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
1216 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

...FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY...

AT 1215 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER
LISBON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 7 MPH.

FUNNEL CLOUDS CAN OCCASIONALLY TOUCH DOWN AND PRODUCE BRIEF...SMALL
TORNADOES. MOVE INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

KELLY