Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Melbourne, FL

000 
WWUS52 KMLB 261939
SVSMLB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
239 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

FLC097-261949-
/O.EXP.KMLB.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-080226T1945Z/
OSCEOLA FL-
239 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 245 PM EST...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE SEVERE STORM
THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND EXITED THE WARNED AREA...
THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 2834 8131 2834 8109 2819 8141 2826 8143
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 240DEG 28KT 2832 8123

$$

15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1125 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS MELBOURNE AND VERO BEACH THIS AFTERNOON...
...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

CURRENT...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER
THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. A LINE OF STORMS WAS
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT NEAR APALACHICOLA. RECENT RADAR LOOP SHOWED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH FLORIDA IN THE
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW. AS THE MORNING LOW CLOUDINESS BURNED
OFF...STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE QUICKLY MIXED DOWN
PROMPTING A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT INTO NORTH FL AND HELP
TRANSPORT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NE ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
INTO NORTH FLORIDA. INITIALLY SHOWERS SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAINLY NORTH I-4...THEN TRANSITION TO FRONTAL
DRIVEN OVER NORTHERN AREAS LATE AFTERNOON AS A 40 TO 50 KT 850MB JET
MAX MOVES THROUGH INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
WEATHER. PLEASE REFER TO THE UPDATED HWO/GHWO FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR/IFR CLOUDS HAVE BURNT OFF. LOOKING AT VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL DETEORIATE TO IFR/LIFR NORTH TO SOUTH
STARTING NLT LATE AFTERNOON AS PRE FRONTAL STORMS AND GUSTY WINDS
BEGIN AFFECTING NORTHERN TAF SITES. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
THROUGH MORNING AS MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE PENINSULA.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD
QUICKLY BEYOND THE LEE...WITHIN 5-10 MILES...OF THE MAINLAND.
EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS BEYOND 20 MILES OF SHORE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS IN/NEAR STORMS MOVING OFF THE MAINLAND NORTH TO SOUTH
THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS
EVENING.

*** NOTE: BUOY 41009 IS ADRIFT. DATA IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF
CONDITIONS 20 MILES EAST OF PORT CANAVERAL ***

&&

.CLIMATE...HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TUESDAY FEBRUARY 26:

DAYTONA BEACH  89 1939
ORLANDO        89 1971
MELBOURNE      86 1996
VERO BEACH     85 1996

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-
     MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-
     OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-
     NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
     SOUTHERN LAKE.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALL COUNTIES THROUGH 5 PM.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

WIMMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1113 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-262200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1113 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS...
IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE...WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH ARE EXPECTED
TO AFFECT LAKE...VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE AND ORANGE COUNTIES THIS
EVENING. AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR. STORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS METRO
ORLANDO AND SPACE COAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS...AND THEN
MOVE SOUTH TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST
OVERNIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF AN APPROACHING LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 5PM AND MIDNIGHT...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. COIN SIZED HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN CELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE MAIN LINE OR IN MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ALONG THE SQUALL
LINE ITSELF. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS.

PERSONS IN CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT TO THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MAY BE PLACED UNDER A WATCH BOX LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. LISTEN FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS...AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS...FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A
SQUALL LINE FORECAST TO AFFECT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAPID STORM
MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS BELOW ONE INCH IN
MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR ROUGHLY FROM ORLANDO AND THE CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD.

...HIGH WIND IMPACT...
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 5 PM...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM ORLANDO AND THE CAPE NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
STORMS OVER LAND WILL ALSO AFFECT THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS...MAINLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING NORTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL...AND SPREADING OFFSHORE THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS
FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER
35 KNOTS...LIGHTNING...ROUGH SEAS...ALONG WITH HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
IN ADDITION TO WIND GUSTS ABOVE 35 KNOTS...CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING AND HAIL...A LOW THREAT FOR A TORNADIC WATERSPOUT EXISTS
OVER THE INTRACOASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF COCOA BEACH
THIS EVENING...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 5 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET WELL
AWAY FROM THE COAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP BOATING CONDITIONS
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

IN ADDITION...MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S THURSDAY MORNING. NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES...WITH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

LONG DURATION OF VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MUCH DRIER
AIR SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THE FIRE DANGER MAY PERSIST OVER
INTERIOR COUNTIES FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

KELLY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
206 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

FLZ045-053-261945-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
206 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...
HEADING TOWARD CENTRAL AND EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY...

AT 205 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG STORM OVER CAMPBELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STRONG STORM INCLUDE KISSIMMEE AND
ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

OTHER STORM WAS OVER KISSIMMEE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

KELLY