Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Melbourne, FL

000 
WWUS52 KMLB 232038
SVSMLB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
436 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2008

FLC095-232046-
/O.CAN.KMLB.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-080523T2100Z/
ORANGE FL-
436 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE SEVERE STORM
THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER CAPABLE OF 
PRODUCING HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. AS A RESULT...THE WARNING HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL 
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. THIS STORM WILL ALSO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 
35 MPH AS IT MOVES EAST NEAR ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

LAT...LON 2852 8112 2833 8113 2833 8149 2831 8153
      2832 8161 2837 8165 2849 8165 2851 8163
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 273DEG 21KT 2841 8139

$$

15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2008

.DISCUSSION...

THROUGH TONIGHT...STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS
THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.
SHORTWAVE/VORT ENERGY ALOFT AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
PROVIDED FROM SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUJNDARIES WILL ALSO AID IN STORM
STRENGTH WITH A FEW STRONG/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE COAST AND BE
WINDING DOWN OVER LAND AREAS LATE EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
LOWER/MID 70S.

SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OFF SE U.S. COAST WITH SURFACE LOW
FORMATION OFF THE GA/SC COAST. WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL PERSIST
BUT WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY COMPONENT LATE IN THE DAY
WITH BACK DOOR FRONT REACHING THE NE FRINGES. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
DEEP SO SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION SAT EVENING AHEAD OF A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THIS
FEATURE TO BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA/FL STRAITS BY
DAYBREAK SUN. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWEST AS RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL KEEP TROUGHING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. AN EAST-WEST ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE
DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND THE FRONT INDUCING CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF
IT DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. WILL KEEP LIKELY COVERAGE AREA-WIDE SAT
INTO EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DRY BEHIND THIS FEATURE ON
SUN...THOUGH WILL KEEP SMALL POPS SOUTHWARD DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE DAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST DURING
THE DAY SUN...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE EASTWARD EXTENDING
FROM THE WESTERN GOMEX THROUGH THE NORTHEAST U.S. LOWS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS ON SUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS.

MON-FRI...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...THE LARGE CONTINENTAL RIDGE WITH
ITS ACCOMPANYING AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE SW ATLC BY DAYBREAK
MON AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY WX FEATURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LYR PW VALUES BLO 1.0 ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AIRMASS WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE SHARP H85-H70 SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WILL SQUASH ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP CHANCES THRU MIDWEEK.
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW DEWPOINT AIR WILL KEEP TEMPS AOB CLIMO
THRU WED. TEMPS/POPS WILL INCREASE ON THU AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND
LOW/MID LVL WINDS SHIFT TO THE SE...TAPPING AN TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE NRN CARIB/GREATER ANTILLES.

&&

.AVIATION...CIG AND VSBY REDUCTIONS WITH SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
00Z THEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 08Z BUT MAY HAVE SOME AREAS LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG 09-12Z SAT.

&&

.MARINE...MAIN CONCERN TO BOATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE TSTMS
MOVING OFFSHORE FROM MAINLAND. STORMS EXPECTED AGAIN ON SATURDAY
WITH A WIND SHIFT STARTING TO MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
DAY. SAT NIGHT-WED...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND WILL REMAIN NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. INITIAL
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST SAT NIGHT BECOMING
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY SUN OVERNIGHT AND REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE SAT EVENING 15-20
KTS...PERHAPS SUSTAINED AROUND 20 KTS (OFFSHORE) LASTING THRU SUN
AND INTO LATE MON BEFORE DECREASING BELOW CAUTIONARY/ADVISORY LEVELS
MON NIGHT/TUE. SEAS WILL CLIMB TWD ADVISORY LEVELS 6 TO POSSIBLY 8
FT DURING THE DAY SUN INTO MON MORNING. SEAS WILL FALL BELOW
CAUTIONARY/ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY TUE. ALL IN ALL NOT A
GREAT MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND FOR BOATING. A NORTHEAST SWELL
CONTRIBUTION BEGINNING SUN WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK ELEVATING THE
RIP CURRENT RISK THREAT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGHER MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES BEFORE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL KEEP RH VALUES FROM REACHING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
THROUGH SAT. EVEN AFTER FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NELY SUN/MON SO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
NOT ANTICIPATED BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS THROUGH SUBSEQUENT RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  86  71  80 /  50  40  20  10
MCO  73  88  70  85 /  40  50  20  10
MLB  74  88  72  81 /  40  60  20  10
VRB  74  88  72  81 /  40  60  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GLITTO
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
609 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2008

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-232200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
609 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
BRING INCREASED INSTABILITY TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. COMBINED
WITH SOME MORE HEATING THAN YESTERDAY AND THE PRESENCE OF THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...WE EXPECT A HIGH COVERAGE OF RAIN AND
LIGHTNING STORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF ORLANDO LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF ORLANDO.
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND DOWNBURST WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TOWARD THE
EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
OFFSHORE MAINLY FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS ON THE
INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...MAINLY NORTH OF
COCOA BEACH.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
THERE EXISTS A FIRE DANGER FROM THE COMBINATION OF HIGH DROUGHT
INDICES AND THE THREAT FOR CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS LONG PERIOD
SWELLS ARRIVE IN THE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
HAZARDOUS LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

KELLY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
125 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2008

FLZ044-144-231815-
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
125 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LAKE COUNTY...

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH...WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY...INCLUDING MASCOTTE...LAKE HARRIS AND
HOWEY IN THE HILLS...UNTIL 215 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND
PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...
AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

17

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
209 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2008

FLZ044-144-231915-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
209 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY...

AT 203 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG STORMS FROM 5 MILES EAST OF EMERALDA TO 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LEESBURG...MOVING EAST AT 18 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STRONG STORM INCLUDE FRUITLAND
PARK...LEESBURG OKAHUMPKA...LISBON...UMATILLA...MASCOTTE AND
CLERMONT.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND BRIEF PERIODS OF SMALL HAIL...PEA TO DIME
SIZE...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

DD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2008

FLZ045-046-231945-
ORANGE-SEMINOLE-
330 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY...

AT 329 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG STORM APPROACHING WINTER PARK. THE STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS TO 40 TO 45 MPH...WHICH MAY CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON
SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF
HYDROPLANING AND LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

15

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
342 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2008

FLZ058-059-232030-
OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-
342 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING SOUTHEASTERN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...
SOUTHWESTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY...

AT 332 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG STORM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OKEECHOBEE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 19
MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STRONG STORM INCLUDE THE TOWN OF
OKEECHOBEE...FOUR SEASONS ESTATES AND TAYLOR CREEK.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH...WHICH MAY CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

DD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
347 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2008

FLZ064-232030-
MARTIN-
347 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING EASTERN MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE
COUNTIES..

AT 338 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG STORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PORT SALERNO...MOVING NORTH AT 15
MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STRONG STORM INCLUDE HOBE
SOUND...STUART...AND ROCKY POINT.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH...WHICH MAY CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON
SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING
AND LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2008

FLZ045-144-232015-
ORANGE-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
355 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY MOVING
TOWARD SOUTHWEST ORANGE COUNTY...

AT 355 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG STORM OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY NEAR U S HIGHWAY
27.  THE STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH AND WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ORANGE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ATTRACTIONS AREA AND LAKE
BUENA VISTA.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH...WHICH MAY CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL
HAIL...PEA TO DIME SIZE...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON
SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF
HYDROPLANING AND LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

MRV