Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
155 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2008

.DISCUSSION...
...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

CURRENTLY-FRI...CUTTOFF LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PUSH SLOWLY
EASTWARD AND SHOULD MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST FRI.  AS THE LOCAL
AREA COMES UNDER THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...MORE
SUBSTANTIAL DRYING ALOFT SHOULD OCCUR...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

HOWEVER IN THE MEANTIME...CURRENT DRY SLOT SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA COMBINED WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SHOULD ALSO AID IN THE FORMATION OF A FEW
SEVERE STORMS. WITH THE DRY SLOT AND COOLING ALOFT...THE MAIN
HAZARDS SHOULD BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL. FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. WITH NORTHERN AREAS
RECEIVING THE MOST HEATING AND A SURFACE TROUGH/ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION/OUTFLOWS APPROACHING...THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THERE.

WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH
MOIST SOUTH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW THERE SHOULD BE A CONTINUING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

ON FRI WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST...A DEEP
LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD
NOT BE AS HIGH...AS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT.
EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS.  A
FEW COULD AGAIN BE STRONG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
WHICH SHOULD NOT MOVE VERY FAR INLAND.  THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RESIDE.

FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER NORTH FLORIDA FORECAST
TO TRACK INTO THE ATLANTIC THEN BE ABSORBED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT
WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO FLORIDA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST AND START INCREASING
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH BUILDING
DOWN THE COAST AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN
STRENGTHENS. DEEPENING EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT A MOIST MARINE AIR
MASS ASHORE AND WELL INLAND AS THE FLOW STRENGTHENS. SCATTERED POP
(30-50 PERCENT) LOOKS REASONABLE. ONSHORE FLOW STARTING SATURDAY
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE LOW-MID
70S ALONG THE COAST AS THE AIR COMES OFF SEA WATER TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

SUN-WED...THE UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND FLATTEN OUT BY WED AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL WARM. THIS RIDGING WILL STEER FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND MID-LEVEL
TROUGHS NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL KEEP AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF WIND ACROSS ECFL THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL GET NUDGED INTO THE WESTERN ATLC
AND WEAKEN AS A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM ADVANCES FROM THE CENTRAL
U.S. INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. DRIER NORTHEAST AIR FINALLY WORKS INTO
THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
PERIOD. WILL KEEP SCT POP CHANCES IN THE FCST BOTH SUN/MON AND SEE
CHANCES DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY HEADING INTO TUE/WED. HIGHS IN THE
VICINITY OF SEASONAL NORMS BUT LOWS WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS.  WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW TONIGHT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOW CEILINGS DEVELOPING BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT ANY EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR.  AFTER EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDINESS BREAKS UP FRI...AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD DEVELOP
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN...THOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS GREAT AS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...DESPITE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR NORTH...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ANY GREATER THAN 10-15 KNOTS.  MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING THROUGH FRI.

FRI NIGHT-MON...SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI NIGHT BECOMES NORTHEAST THEN EAST
SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND INTO THE
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUN THROUGH TUE WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA THRESHOLDS BY SUN AND REMAINING ABOVE SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH MON BEFORE STARTING TO DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD TO 7
FEET OR MORE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY SUN...AND THE NEARSHORE
WATERS SUN NIGHT. SEAS CONTINUE BUILDING AS LONG PERIODS EASTERLY
SWELLS START ARRIVING IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  85  73  84 /  40  40  30  40
MCO  71  88  72  86 /  40  40  30  40
MLB  73  87  74  85 /  40  50  40  40
VRB  73  88  72  85 /  40  50  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WIMMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
605 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2008

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-092200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
605 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH GEORGIA WILL PRODUCE GREATER INSTABILITY
TODAY LEADING TO A HIGHER THREAT FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO
THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME CAUSING
TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
WEATHER AND OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT
THREAT ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A
LIFEGUARD.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER
OVER THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DEEPENING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
HIGH ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST BUT LIGHTNING THREAT LOWER.
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS WILL DETERIORATE BOATING CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME PRODUCING ROUGH
SURF AND AN INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

KELLY

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
520 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2008

FLZ041-044>046-144-092200-
INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
LAKE COUNTY-
520 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2008

...OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING AREAS...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
AFFECT LAKE...NORTHERN ORANGE...SEMINOLE COUNTY...AND SOUTHWESTERN
VOLUSIA COUNTIES...

AT 520 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG STORMS OVER LAKE...SEMINOLE...ORANGE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.
THESE STORMS WERE IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS CURRENTLY BEING WARNED
FOR.

THE MOST INTENSE OF THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR THE VILLAGES...
LADY LAKE...EMERALDA...AND FERNDALE IN LAKE COUNTY...LOCKHART...
PLYMOUTH AND ZELLWOOD IN ORANGE COUNTY...AND ACROSS MOST OF SEMINOLE
COUNTY...INCLUDING DEBARY AND ENTERPRISE IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST
VOLUSIA COUNTY.

THE ACTIVITY WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
527 PM EDT THU OCT 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     HAIL             ORMOND BEACH            29.28N 81.06W
10/09/2008  M0.75 INCH       VOLUSIA            FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ORMOND BEACH PD

&&

MRT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
529 PM EDT THU OCT 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             N ORMOND BEACH          29.28N 81.06W
10/09/2008  E0.70 INCH       VOLUSIA            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SR40 AND US HWY 1

&&

MRT