Red Flag Warning 27, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
848 PM EDT MON APR 28 2008

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND PUSH SOUTH. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ALLOWED FOR LESS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. HAVE THEREFORE DECREASED POPS OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS MENTIONED OVER THE NORTH AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT.
ALSO REMOVED THUNDERSTORM WORDING OVER LAND AS INSTABILITY IS TOO
WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS SLIGHTLY AS BUOY OBS AT 41009
WERE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS IN THE FORECAST. SEAS UP TO 6
FEET CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
VEERING TO THE WEST OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. WILL CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT TO EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR TWO NORTHERN
OFFSHORE ZONES AND INCLUDE SOUTHERN OFFSHORE ZONE FOR THIS
EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...WILL KEEP WATCH UP FOR MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DURATIONS LOOK MARGINAL AND
WINDS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH FOR INSTANTANEOUS THRESHOLDS SO WILL
DEFER TO THE MID SHIFT TO REVIEW THE 00Z RUN BEFORE DECIDING IF
UPGRADE WARRANTED. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...INTERIOR WILL
LIKELY NEED A WATCH POSTED FOR WED AFTN AS WELL.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-
     ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...NONE.
&&

WEITLICH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
438 AM EDT MON APR 28 2008

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-282100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
438 AM EDT MON APR 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE WINDS ALOFT. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS INITIALLY MOST NUMEROUS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE FOUR CORRIDOR WILL MOVE EAST AND
EXPAND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. AS
STORMS ENCOUNTER A STATIONARY SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY NEAR THE EAST
COAST STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SMALL HAIL AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF TORNADO OR WATER SPOUT. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
THE STRONGER STORMS.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
BRISK STEERING LEVEL WINDS WILL PUSH DEVELOPING STORMS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. ORGANIZED STORMS WILL AFFECT THE MARINE
AREA ESPECIALLY NORTH OF COCOA BEACH WITH THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
MARINE GUSTS EXCEEDING 34 KNOTS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF VERO BEACH SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE WEST FOR APPROACHING
STORMS AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK HARBOR BEFORE THE STORMS THREATEN.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
A NEARLY STATIONARY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM COCOA
BEACH TO THE TREASURE COAST WILL DIRECTIONALLY SHEAR STORM SCALE
WINDS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE BRIEF ROTATING CELLS. ADDITIONAL
WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ORGANIZED EAST MOVING CELLS
CROSSING THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG AND NORTH OF MERRITT ISLAND.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
IN ADDITION TO THE MODERATE TO HIGH THREAT OF STORMS AFFECTING THE
MARINE AREAS...STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS MAINLY NORTH
OF PORT CANAVERAL WILL POSE A HAZARD TO SMALL VESSELS OVER THE
OPEN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE WATERS
FROM PORT CANAVERAL...MOSQUITO LAGOON NORTHWARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND PASS OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR WILL CREATE A FIRE
WEATHER DANGER FOR MOST OF THE AREA BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

PENDERGRAST