Red Flag Warning 26, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
244 PM EDT MON APR 21 2008

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT/TOMORROW...CUT OFF LOW WILL PUSH SOUTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTLINE AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING OUT
OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND THEN STRENGTHEN AND VEER TO THE NORTHEAST
TOMORROW. DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER LAND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES SLIGHTLY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH
LOW TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

WED-SUN...CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TUE EVENING IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THU WHILE FILLING GRADUALLY. THIS
WILL KEEP NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA PAST
MIDWEEK. BEHIND THIS FEATURE...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL SLIDE OVER
THE PENINSULA THU-FRI BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND FLATTENS OUT. CLOSER
TO THE SURFACE LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO WED EVENING BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO VEER
TOWARD NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
STILL EXPECTING NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS (HIGHS/LOWS) THROUGH MOST OF
THIS PERIOD. TYPICAL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS MOISTURE LEVELS CREEPING UP OVER
THE WEEKEND BUT WEAK EASTERLY FLOW WOULD FAVOR THE WESTERN
PENINSULA FOR ANY DAYTIME SHOWERS...THUS THE CURRENT DRY FORECAST
STILL LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS WILL THEN STRENGTHEN TO AROUND
15 KNOTS...OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CLOSER TO THE AREA. SEAS MAY PICK BACK UP
TO 4 FEET OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WITH NEARSHORE WATERS AROUND
2 TO 3 FEET.

TUE NIGHT-FRI...NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THU WHILE GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE
NORTHEAST DUE TO A TIGHTENING GRADIENT FROM AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPEEDS MAY APPROACH
15-20 KTS OFFSHORE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS DURING THIS TIME. WINDS
WILL DECREASE THU NIGHT/FRI WHILE BECOMING MORE EASTERLY. SEAS
WILL SLOWLY RESPOND UPWARD LATE TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE WEEK. THERE MAY BE A FEW PERIODS WHERE SEAS REACH EXERCISE
CAUTION OR ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...MAINLY OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPDATED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE INLAND LOCATIONS OF THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AS SEA BREEZE IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME PUSHING
INLAND AND DEWPOINTS IN THIS AREA WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR RH VALUES
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AT LEAST 4 HOURS.

CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA TOMORROW WILL ALLOW FOR
NORTHWEST INTERIOR SECTIONS TO POSSIBLY SEE MIN RH VALUES IN THE
LOW/MID 30S FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR
THIS AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

WED...NORTH/NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY OF WINDS SUGGESTS MORE MARINE
INFLUENCE AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS MIN RH VALUES ABOVE 40
PERCENT EXCEPT SLIGHTLY BELOW THAT IN THE FAR SOUTH INTERIOR.

THU-FRI...EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MIN RH VALUES AT 40 PERCENT OR
HIGHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  57  79  60  78 /   0   0   0  10
MCO  59  83  60  82 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  58  81  61  79 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  59  81  60  80 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
     INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
     NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
     BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...NONE.
&&

WEITLICH/LASCODY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
412 AM EDT MON APR 21 2008

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-212000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
412 AM EDT MON APR 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELL WILL ENHANCE THE RIP CURRENT RISK AT
AREA BEACHES TODAY. ASK LOCAL BEACH PATROLS SBOUT CONDITIONS WHEN
ARRIVING AT THE BEACH AND ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 80S AND A DRY AIR MASS
WILL ENHANCE FIRE SENSITIVITY OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED
FIRE SENSITIVITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE MID WEEK AS WINDS AND SWELLS INCREASE IN
ASSOCATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA DRIFTING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

GLITTO