Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
949 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY-TODAY...WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS INITIAL UPPER
IMPULSE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND JET STREAK OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF STARTING TO ROUND THE BASE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE RUC
IS STILL SHOWING SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF BUT
RADAR IS JUST SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE BIG BEND AREA.

PRE FRONTAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.  HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE INHIBITED BY LOW CLOUDS AND EXTENSIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS FROM THE GULF. WINDS HAVE VEERED SO
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED.  THIS
SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  SOUTHERN
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST FAVORED AS MOISTURE/HEATING WILL
BE THE GREATEST THERE.

MENTION OF A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE SOUTH STILL LOOKS WARRANTED
DUE TO RATHER STRONG WIND PROFILE.  NORTHERN SECTIONS SHOULD MAINLY
SEE SHOWERS THOUGH.  ANY ZONE UPDATE WOULD BE MAINLY TO CLEAN UP
WORDING AND WILL FOLLOW CLOUD/RADAR TRENDS THROUGH LATE MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BUT EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO AFFECT THE AREA.  THIS WILL LIMIT
HEATING SO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD BE SCATTERED...WITH MAIN STORM CHANCES BEING IN THE
SOUTH WHERE THE MOST HEATING SHOULD OCCUR.  EXPECT SOME WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING PERIODS OF HEATING/MIXING. FRONT SHOULD
REACH THE CENTRAL PENINSULA AROUND 18Z AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AROUND
00Z BUT CLEARING SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG PRE FRONTAL SOUTHWEST WINDS NECESSITATE ADVISORIES
TODAY THEN THE WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD
DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BE NORTH ON THU...THOUGH AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS AND DECREASING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER (PREV DISCUSSION)...A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS EXPECTED TO
FILTER IN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
CREATE AN EXPECTED LOW RH DURATION OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS POSTED FOR INTERIOR
ZONES FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR INLAND VOLUSIA-
     NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
     LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM....BRAGAW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
451 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-132100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
451 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A POTENT UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL HELP PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
PERSONS OUTDOORS SHOULD KEEP ALERT TO THE CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF
APPROACHING STORMS.

...HIGH WIND IMPACT...
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. UNSECURED OBJECTS MAY BE BLOWN ABOUT BY
THE GUSTY WINDS.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A FEW STORMS MOVING QUICKLY NORTH AND EAST FROM THE MAINLAND WILL
CARRY A THREAT OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOW WIND CHILL READINGS OF 33 TO 36 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY MORNING NORTH OF THE METRO ORLANDO AREA.

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A THREAT ONCE AGAIN FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

PENDERGRAST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1018 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     TORNADO          COCOA BEACH             28.35N 80.61W
02/13/2008                   BREVARD            FL   NWS STORM SURVEY

            CREWS DETERMINED OCCURRENCE OF EF0 -ZERO- AT DIPLOMAT
            CONDOS IN COCOA BEACH ON FEB 12TH. DEBRIS FROM THE
            DIPLOMAT DAMAGED ADJACENT WIND RUSH CONDOS. ESTIMATED
            WINDS 70 TO 80 MPH. LOCATION 3100 NORTH HWY A1A IN COCOA
            BEACH.

&&

MRT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1018 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TORNADO          COCOA BEACH             28.35N 80.61W
02/12/2008                   BREVARD            FL   NWS STORM SURVEY

            CREWS DETERMINED OCCURRENCE OF EF0 -ZERO- AT DIPLOMAT
            CONDOS IN COCOA BEACH ON FEB 12TH. DEBRIS FROM THE
            DIPLOMAT DAMAGED ADJACENT WIND RUSH CONDOS. ESTIMATED
            WINDS 70 TO 80 MPH. LOCATION 3100 NORTH HWY A1A IN COCOA
            BEACH.

&&

MRT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1121 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008

FLZ054-058-059-064-131700-
INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-
1121 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING SOUTHEASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY...
WESTERN MARTIN COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...ST. LUCIE
COUNTY...

AT 1117 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
A STRONG STORM MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE THE TOWN OF
OKEECHOBEE...FORT PIERCE AND STUART.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH...WHICH MAY CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

RL