Lake Wind Advisory 12, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
307 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2008

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT/WED...STRONG AND GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
ESP ALG THE COAST WITH SOME RELAXING OF THE WIND SPEEDS OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS. WINDS VEER TO A SLIGHT ONSHORE COMPONENT WED
WHICH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER WINDY DAY. IN FACT...THIS WILL BRING
HIGHER SEAS (5-7 FOOT BREAKERS) INTO THE SURF ZONE. SO HAVE RAISED
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT JUST PRIOR TO HIGH
TIDE AROUND 6 AM...AND CONTINUES THRU WED NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE
ROUGH SURF AND PROSPECT FOR SOME BEACH EROSION.

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

RECORD LOWS TONIGHT:
DAB  42/1952
MCO  45/1950
MLB  46/2007
VRB  47/2007

WED NIGHT-FRI...
STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY UP THE ERN SEABOARD...ALLOWING THE
DLM RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS TO BUILD INTO THE SERN U.S.  AIRMASS
ASSOCD WITH THE RIDGE WILL BE FAR TOO DRY AND SUPPRESSED TO SUPPORT
ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP.  HOWEVER...SFC-H85 WINDS WILL CRANK AROUND TO
THE E/NE ON THU AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING THE
SFC/BNDRY LYR TO UNDERGO STEADY MODIFICATION.  THU TEMPS WILL START
OUT IN THE COOL U40S/L50S...10F BLO CLIMO...BUT WILL RECOVER BY
AFTN INTO THE M/U70S OVER MOST OF THE CWA.  MODIFICATION TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRI WITH A LIGHT E/SE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS NEAR CLIMO.

SAT-WED...
CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WX IN STORE FOR THE CWA AS THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
MID/UPR LVL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DAMPENS OUT.  FLOW WILL
BECOME LARGELY ZONAL OVER THE SRN TIER STATES...A PATTERN THAT
GENERALLY DOES NOT ALLOW COLD FRONTS TO PUSH MUCH FARTHER S THAN THE
FL PANHANDLE.  LACK OF AIRMASS CHANGE WILL KEEP MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO ALONG THE COAST...SLIGHTLY ABV CLIMO INLAND.  PROLONGED PD OF
ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALLOW ISOLD SHRAS TO AFFECT THE COASTAL ZONES...BUT
THESE WOULD BE BRIEF WITH MINIMAL IMPACT...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE
FCST ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS (FL050-060) WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET
EXCEPT MAY PERSIST A BIT LATER ALG VOLUSIA/BREVARD COASTS.

&&

.MARINE...SOLID ADVISORY CONDS OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS AT THIS
TIME AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU WED. GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL OCCUR
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

HIGH SEAS WILL BEGIN A SLOW RETREAT WED NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER THE SERN U.S. SETTLES OVER THE FL PENINSULA THRU THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.  HOWEVER...NE SWELL GENERATED BY THE
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE E FL COAST THRU
FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABV ADVISORY LVLS.
SWELL SHOULD DAMPEN OUT BY DAWN SAT WITH WINDS AOB 15KTS SEAS AOB
5FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DESPITE COOL TEMPS...LOW RH AND WIND PRODUCING RED
FLAG CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR INTERIOR
SECTIONS WED AFTN WITH GUSTY N/NE WINDS. HAVE POSTED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THU AFTN AS WELL FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS BUT WINDS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  45  68  50  73 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  44  72  50  77 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  48  71  55  74 /  10   0   0   0
VRB  48  72  56  74 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
     INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
     NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
     BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
     NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
     BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
     SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST. LUCIE.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-
     OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

KELLY/BRAGAW