Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WWA SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
257 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

.DISCUSSION...

...EXTREME FLOODING DANGER CONTINUING IN SOUTH BREVARD...
...TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED...

TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH
AND ACCORDING TO THE WIND TOWERS AT CAPE CANAVERAL...THE CENTER WAS
JUST ALONG THE NORTH SIDE AT THE COAST.  HOWEVER...A CONVERGENCE
ZONE CONTINUED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND WAS RESULTING IN A
PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.  AMOUNTS ARE
BEING MEASURED IN FEET...WITH ONE REPORT IN NORTH MELBOURNE OVER 24
INCHES AND SEVERAL OTHER SPOTS AROUND MELBOURNE AT 16-18 INCHES.
THESE RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EASILY RECORDS AND WILL TURN OUT TO BE
HISTORICAL FOR THE LOCAL AREA.  THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER ANTICIPATES STORM TOTALS NEAR 30 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE RESULTING FLOODING HAS PRODUCED LIFE THREATENING FLOODING IN
SOUTH BREVARD...ESPECIALLY MELBOURNE...AND CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARD IN THE SHORT TERM.

THE CENTER OF FAY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO THE
VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST.

STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS ABOUT WHAT MAY TURN OUT TO BE A
HISTORIC FLOOD EVENT FOR SOUTH BREVARD COUNTY.

THURS-SAT (PREVIOUS FORECAST)...NHC FORECAST TRACK OF FAY LIFTING
BACK NWLY THROUGH PENINSULA MAY CONTINUE ENHANCED WINDS INTO
THURSDAY...ESP NORTHERN SECTIONS. THIS INDICATED IN CURRENT FORECAST
WITH CAVEAT THAT WITH FAY IN SUCH CLOSE PROXIMITY TO AREA...EVEN
MINOR CHANGES IN THE PROJECTED TRACK AND STRENGTH OF FAY COULD MEAN
MAJOR REVISIONS IN LOCAL FORECASTS. EVEN AFTER DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
FAY LESSEN OVER THE AREA...VERY WET PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. EC FL WILL BE VULNERABLE TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING
DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED WITH FAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR AND SCATTERED LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL HAVE
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY SOUTH OF KFPR.  EXPECT THESE INCLEMENT
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT BUT SOME GRADUAL BREAKUP OF THE
SOLID COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.MARINE...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ALL OF THE WATERS.  DEPENDING ON THE ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF
FAY...CONDITIONS MAY START TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN THE SOUTH ON THU.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT BY THE WEEKEND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST SO THAT WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH TO MORE
MANAGEABLE LEVELS FOR BOATING.

EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A LONG PERIOD SWELL THOUGH WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A HIGH RIP CURRENT DANGER.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN
     RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-
     OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
     SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MARTIN-OKEECHOBEE.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-NORTHERN
     BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST. LUCIE.

     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR INLAND
     VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.

     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OSCEOLA.

AM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20
     NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

LASCODY/WEITLICH/PENDERGRAST/BLOTTMAN/DECKER/TURNER/
JACOBS/STEVENSON/BURKHARDT/LESLIE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
948 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-201000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
948 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT AND ITS
GRAPHICAL COMPONENT FOR INFORMATION ON EXPECTED IMPACTS FROM
TROPICAL STORM FAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
IMPACTS FROM FAY ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH
A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
FORMAL ACTIVATION IS LIKELY. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MAY NEED A
PCARS RADIO OPERATOR.

SEDLOCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

FLZ047-054-202200-
INDIAN RIVER-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
355 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

...SQUALL OVER NORTHERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN BREVARD
COUNTY PERSISTS WITH HAZARDOUS FLOODING OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY...

AT 245 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS NO
SIGNS THAT THE STRONG SQUALL OVER SOUTHERN BREVARD AND NORTHERN
INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES IS WEAKENING. THIS SQUALL WILL CONTINUE TO
PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
SEVERE STREET AND LOW LEVEL FLOODING. ANOTHER ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS SOUTH OF 192 IN
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS SQUALL.

IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT IF YOU DO NOT NEED TO DRIVE ANYWHERE
TODAY TO PLEASE STAY OFF THE ROADS

A FEW RAINFALL REPORTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH 3 PM ARE
AS FOLLOWS:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE MELBOURNE   16.83
MELBOURNE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 13.32
VIERA   18.42
WINDOVER FARMS 24.80
FORT PIERCE 11.26
SCRIPPS SPACE COAST REPORT FROM SEBASTIAN- PUBLIC -   18.50

SEDLOCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
413 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

FLZ064-202215-
MARTIN-
413 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

...FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MARTIN COUNTY...

AT 411 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER
HOBE SOUND AND NEAR JOHNATHAN STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS
AND FUNNEL CLOUDS INCLUDE JOHNATHAN DICKINSON STATE PARK.

FUNNEL CLOUDS CAN OCCASIONALLY TOUCH DOWN AND PRODUCE BRIEF...SMALL
TORNADOES. MOVE INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

SEDLOCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
550 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

FLZ047-054-147-202345-
INDIAN RIVER-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
550 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

...SQUALLS OVER INDIAN RIVER COUNTY AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY
CONTINUE TO DUMP HEAVY RAINFALL FALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND...

AT 550 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED STRONG
SQUALLS OVER NORTHERN BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES. THESE HEAVY
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND SEVERE STREET AND LOW
LEVEL FLOODING. ANOTHER ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY AND THROUGH
CENTRAL INDIAN RIVER COUNTY. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE SQUALLS.

IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT IF YOU DO NOT NEED TO DRIVE ANYWHERE
TODAY TO PLEASE STAY OFF THE ROADS

A FEW RAINFALL REPORTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH 4 PM ARE
AS FOLLOWS:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE MELBOURNE   17.35
MELBOURNE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 13.51
VIERA   18.42
WINDOVER FARMS 24.80
FORT PIERCE 13.37
SCRIPPS SPACE COAST REPORT FROM SEBASTIAN- PUBLIC -   18.50

SEDLOCK