Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
211 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2008

.DISCUSSION...

...A FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS THROUGH EVENING AND AGAIN TUE...

THROUGH TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT AND AS IT DOES SO WILL HELP MOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. BOUNDARY WILL LOSE ITS
STRENGTH AS IT DOES SO BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR NORTH (NORTHERN LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES) LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECTING TO REMAIN DRY
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPS STILL AROUND NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

TUE...MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
AREA IN PRE FRONTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE (1.7-2.0 INCHES
PRECIPITABLE WATER).  POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WITH JET ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...THEREFORE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEA BREEZE FORMATION AND POSSIBLY SOME INFLUENCE
FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL ACT AS
FOCUSING MECHANISMS.

RATHER COOL 500 MB TEMPS AROUND MINUS 9 INSURES THAT SOME STORMS
WHICH FORM WILL BE STRONG-SEVERE AGAIN. MOS POPS ARE IN THE 70-80
PERCENT RANGE...SO HAVE BUMPED UP THE POPS IN OUR CURRENT
FORECAST.

WED...EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL LIFT/FILL WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING
STARTING TO BUILD FROM THE ATLANTIC BACK ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LINGERING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND NORTHEAST GULF.  THIS
OCCURRED WITH THE LAST EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RESULTED IN A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS AND NOT A LOT OF REDUCTION IN
POPS.  THE LATEST GFS CONTINUES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.7 TO 2.0 INCHES.  CURRENT FORECAST SHOWING POPS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL (50 PERCENT) LOOKS GOOD...AND IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST MOS
NUMBERS.

THU-SUN (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE PENINSULA DURING THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL
RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD. SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE INTO THE PENINSULA THU NIGHT-SUN ESPECIALLY NEARER THE EAST
COAST. STEERING FLOW WEAKENS AND GRADUALLY BECOMES
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BY THIS WEEKEND WITH DECREASING POP CHANCES AND
GREATEST THREATS FOR CONVECTION MOVING FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR AS
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PENETRATES FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHOULD THEN SEE A RETURN TO
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN BY
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...MAIN CONCERN THRU THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WILL BE OFFSHORE
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT.

TUE-SAT...SURFACE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY NUDGE/REBUILD
NORTHWARD AS TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD DISSIPATES. THIS
SHOULD KEEP WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. THE
MAIN CONCERNS OF LATE HAVE BEEN THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE WATERS.
THE STEERING FLOW THAT HAS BEEN PUSHING STORMS OFFSHORE SHOULD
WEAKEN ON WED AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK.  THERE SHOULD BE LESS
CHANCE THAT MAINLAND AFTERNOON STORMS WILL CROSS THE COAST DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  86  71  87 /  30  70  30  50
MCO  73  87  72  90 /  30  70  20  50
MLB  72  86  70  87 /  30  70  30  50
VRB  71  88  69  87 /  30  70  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....LASCODY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1128 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2008

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-302000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1128 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES FROM SEA BREEZES...LAKE BREEZES AND
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS WILL ALLOW NUMEROUS STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN
EARLIER AND HAVE FURTHER INLAND MOVEMENT ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
STORMS WILL INITIATE EARLIER ALONG THE THE SEA BREEZE WITH AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FURTHER NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS INTERACTIONS WITH STORMS AND OUTFLOWS FROM THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE OCCUR. SLOW AND ERRATIC STORM MOTION AROUND 5 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET WITH FASTER MOVEMENT NORTH
OF THIS AREA AROUND 15 MPH TO THE EAST. SCATTERED STORMS WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES...STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND COIN SIZE HAIL. MOVE INDOORS TO A SAFE LOCATION
AT THE FIRST SIGN OF AN APPROACHING OR DEVELOPING STORM.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
HEAVY DOWNPOURS OCCURRING IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MAY LEAD TO
TEMPORARY PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
EXPECT AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE BEACHES TODAY DUE TO A
LONG PERIOD SWELL. ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
BOATERS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY FROM SEBASTIAN INLET
NORTHWARD SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE WEST FOR LIGHTNING STORMS MOVING
EAST OFF THE MAINLAND AROUND 15 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS OR
GREATER AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY ADD TO STORM STRENGTH AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

WEITLICH/GLITTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
552 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     TSTM WND GST     ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL A 28.43N 81.32W
06/30/2008  M40 MPH          ORANGE             FL   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            35 KNOTS FROM 340 DEGREES

&&

MRT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
601 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2008

FLZ054-302245-
INDIAN RIVER-
601 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING EASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY...

AT 600 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG STORM OVER VERO LAKE ESTATES...MOVING SOUTH AT 11 MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH...WHICH MAY CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL HAIL...PEA TO DIME SIZE...WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
610 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     TSTM WND GST     17 SE TITUSVILLE        28.41N 80.62W
06/30/2008  M41 MPH          BREVARD            FL   OTHER FEDERAL

            36 KNOTS FROM 350 DEGREES AT SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY

&&

MRT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
626 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2008

FLZ047-302315-
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
626 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN BREVARD
COUNTY...

AT 624 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAD PUSHED 5 TO 10 MILES WEST OF I-95.  IN
ADDITION...A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTH
BREVARD COUNTY WAS PUSHING SOUTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

AS THESE TWO BOUNDARIES INTERACT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AND PUSH BACK TO THE EAST AT 15 MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH.  THE WINDS MAY CAUSE
UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER
OUTAGES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON
SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING
AND LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IF STORMS THREATEN YOUR AREA.

BRAGAW

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