Winter Storm Watch 7, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
255 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2008

.SHORT TERM...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING CU SOUTHEAST SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
LATE...MAINLY WEST AREAS.

MODELS STILL IN TWO CAMPS. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
THAN GFS. GFS WOULD PUT WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IN SOUTHWEST THIRD OF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. ECMWF MAINLY ADVISORY AMOUNTS WITH HEAVIEST
BAND ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

NAM AND UKMET IS MUCH FARTHER NORTH...WITH WARNING CRITERIA SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND LESSER QPF
AND MORE OF A RAIN SNOW MIX SOUTHWEST PORTIONS.  THE NEW NAM RUN
IN PARALLEL MORE OR LESS SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE. HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH DUE TO OVER AN INCH OF QPF IN HEAVIEST
PRECIP BAND CONSISTENT ON MOST MODELS. ONLY QUESTION SEEMS
PLACEMENT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A MIX OF GFS/NEW PARALLEL NAM AND
WILL EXPAND WATCH A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN GFS WOULD INDICATE.
STRONG 500 MB FONTOGENESIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
MAX LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.

MORE COLD AIR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES. A TYPICAL COLD SPRING SITUATION. HOWEVER WITH ANY
SUN HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER FAIRLY QUICK INLAND DUE TO
INCREASING SPRING SUNSHINE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER NORTHEAST WINDS OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP THE EAST RATHER COOL.

.LONG TERM...
A MORE OF LESS A WEST UPPER JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING A NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN. ONE
SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT TUESDAY MORNING WITH BRIEF WARM AIR ADVECTION. WITH A MORE
ZONAL FLOW INDICATED ON GFS TEMPS MAY BE A BIT MORE SEASONAL
NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER ECMWF A BIT MORE WEST NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE COLUMN OVR WI WL RMN DRY FM SFC TO H700 TNGT THRU THUR. VFR
CONDS WL CONT UFN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR WIZ056-057-062-063-067>069.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR WIZ058-064>066-070>072.

LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...HENTZ
AVIATION/MARINE...35

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