Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
310 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND TIMING OF NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AFTER
SHORT QUIET WEATHER PERIOD.

.TONIGHT...SLY WINDS AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE BEGINNING TO CONTRIBUTE
TO IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS WITH THETAE VALUES IN THE 350S K ACROSS
SRN WI...SFC BASED CAPE OF NEARLY 2000 J/KG AND RISING...AND LATEST RUC
PWS AROUND 1.8 INCHES. MEANWHILE...MCS DEVELOPING OVER SE MN AND NRN
IA INITIATED NEAR A SFC TROUGH...ALONG NOSE OF 20-25 KT LLJ...AND
JUST DOWNSTREAM OF SHORTWAVE OVER WRN MN. MCS MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE TO
THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN W-SWLY FLOW AND AFFECT THE NRN CWA OR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WILL INTENSIFY WITHIN SFC BASED
CAPE OF 4000 J/KG OVER CNTRL AND ERN IA. IN ADDITION...A 40 KT WSWLY
NOCTURNAL LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS SRN
WI TNT ALONG WITH THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE AND THE TAIL OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
AROUND SUNRISE. BIGGEST CONCERN IS FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WITH THE
MCS AND DEVELOPMENT THAT MAY OCCUR ON BACKSIDE OF IT AS 850 MB FLOW
ALIGNS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS. CORFIDI VECTORS BECOME VERY WEAK
AND ACTUALLY INDICATE BACK BUILDING FOR A PERIOD OF TIME LATE TNT.
SOME MESO MODELS AND OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING OF
THE CONVECTION IN FAR ERN WI POSSIBLY DUE TO THE LATE TIMING. HAVE
THUS ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WI INCLUDING FOND DU
LAC AND DODGE COUNTIES IN THE ERN CWA. WILL STILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL IN SE WI HOWEVER.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HANG ON TO
SOME MORNING CONVECTION EARLY TUESDAY AS MOST PROGS SWEEP RAIN OUT
OF CWA WITH TIME. SOME CONCERN ABOUT REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
DURING AFTERNOON HOURS AS AIRMASS RECOVERS AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES IN RESIDUAL MOIST AIRMASS. HOWEVER LACK OF A WELL
DEFINED TRIGGER...AT THE MOMENT...PRECLUDES EXTENDING RAIN CHANCES
PAST TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE PROGS BRING IN HIGH PRESSURE OVER CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STRENGTH OF HIGH IS OF CONCERN
THAT ANY DECENT SHORT WAVE IN MID AND UPPER WESTERLY FLOW COULD
SET OFF DAYTIME CONVECTION. BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF HI RES
PROGS STARTING TO COME MORE IN LINE BEGINNING THURSDAY AS RAPID
RETURN OF UNSTABLE AIR AND ACTIVE SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH LACK OF MID LEVEL CAP FEEL THAT
CONVECTION COULD EVENTUALLY PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE WARM FRONT PULLS NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN
THURSDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE MENTIONED CHANCY CONVECTION FOR NOW WHICH
SHOULD FOCUS WITH WARM FRONT. THEN BY FRIDAY GFS/ECMWF HI RES
PROGS DEVELOP SOUTHWEST SURFACE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW KEEPING CWA
IN A VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
WILL MAKE THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY. PROGS
TRY AND DRAG A COOL FRONT ACROSS CWA EARLY SATURDAY...BUT
DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN MODELS ON HOW FAR SOUTH TO DRIVE FRONT.
GFS IS SLOWER WITH PROGRESSION OF FRONT AND WILL STAY WITH THAT
SCENARIO FOR NOW DUE TO FRONT BECOMING SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO LOWER
AND MIDDLE LEVEL WIND FLOW. WITH MINOR SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN
THIS FLOW HAVE OPTED TO KEEP DECENT RAIN CHANCES AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER SRN WI TNT TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS THE REGION. A COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER IA AND MN WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND THEN
CONTINUE EWD TO LAKE MI BY LATE EVENING OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS MAY THEN CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP OVER SRN WI THROUGH
SUNRISE. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE NIGHT WHILE MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TSTORMS.
DRIER AIR WILL THEN WORK ITS WAY INTO SRN WI AFTER SUNRISE TUE ON
WLY WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
TUE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR WIZ046-047-051-056>058-062-063-067-068.

LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...17
AVIATION/MARINE...20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
410 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-081500-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
410 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HIGH WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT TONIGHT MAINLY WEST OF A LINE
FROM FOND DU LAC TO BEAVER DAM TO MADISON TO MONROE. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS.

SOME LAKES...RIVERS AND STREAMS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. MUCH OF
THE ROCK RIVER IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE
MODERATE FLOODING...WITH PORTIONS STILL AT MAJOR FLOOD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TUESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

MUCH OF THE ROCK RIVER WILL REMAIN IN MODERATE FLOOD...HOWEVER
RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-081500-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
410 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

TZ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

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