River Flood Watch 9, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
302 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SHORT SHORT TERM...WEATHER EXPECTED TO BE QUIET OVERNIGHT AS LULL
EXISTS DUE TO ABSENCE OF SHORT WAVE TO TRIGGER ANY PRECIPITATION.
EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES...SOME FOG AND PERHAPS VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS DRY AIR IN MID LAYERS TO LAST THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE FROM NGM/NAM/SREF/GFS/WRF20/ECMWF
HI-RES PROGS POINT TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR CWA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. HAVE
UPGRADED WINTER STORM WATCH TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ENTIRE CWA
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF EXPECTED HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS. WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT TO JUST SOUTHEAST
OF CWA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...PROGS ALL DEVELOP PAN HANDLE
TYPE LOW TO RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG FRONT AND INTENSIFY AS IT HEADS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL
TAP GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WITH EXPECTED QPF VALUES TO APPROACHING
1 INCH OF LIQUID BY THE TIME THE STORMS EXITS AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TYPICALLY THIS PATH WOULD FAVOR MAINLY SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH
SWATH OF HEAVIEST SNOW. HOWEVER...INDICATIONS FROM MODELS SHOW
VERY FAVORABLE DENDRITE BAND AND CROSS HAIRS CONFIGURATION SETS UP
ALONG AXIS FROM LAFAYETTE COUNTY NORTHEAST TO SHEBOYGAN COUNTY
DURING HEIGHT OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL FROM 03Z WEDNESDAY TO 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THUS FORECAST 6 TO 10 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS EXPANDED TO THE
NORTHWEST AS A WIDER THAN NORMAL HEAVY SNOW BAND IS INDICATED. FAR
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CWA WILL ALSO GET ENOUGH SNOW ALONG WITH
STRONG WINDS MAKE STORM CRITERIA. CRAS PROGGED SATELLITE IR LOOP
CONFIRMS THIS TREND WITH COLDEST CLOUD TOPS OVER CWA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CWA EXPECTED TO SEE SNOW RATIOS
AROUND 13:1 WHILE HEAVY WET SNOW RATIOS OF 10:1 OR 8:1 ARE
EXPECTED IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE FORECAST LOW TRACK...CWA
REMAINS IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 30 KNOTS AT 925 MILLIBARS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM MIXING
DOWN TO SURFACE ACROSS CWA.

.LONG TERM...STILL LOOKING AT A SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LLVL MSTR WL RMN TRAPPED UNDER INVRSN THRU 00Z WED. LOOK
FOR WDSPRD IFR CIGS...WDSPRD MVFR VSBYS AND AREAS OF IFR VSBYS IN
LGT FOG THRU THE PD.

.MARINE...SCA CRITERIA WL NO LONGER BE MET BY MIDNIGHT...BUT WINDS
WL TURN NELY TUE AFTN AHD OF AN APCHG LOW PRES SYS...AND INCRS TO
15-25 KNOTS BY EVNG. XPCT SCA CRITERIA TO BE MET BY LATE TUE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...17
AVIATION/MARINE...35

CRAS PROGGED
SATELLITE IR LOOP ON THE MONEY WITH THIS FEATURE AND SHARPENS BACK
EDGE OF SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TOWARD SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

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