River Flood Watch 7, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
149 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

FORECAST FOCUS ON PCPN FINALLY ENDING THIS EVENING. THEN SNOW
EVENT FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

MID LEVEL TROF SWINGING UP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. FRONTOGENETIC SQUEEZE OCCURING ACROSS THE AREA AS
COLD AIR POURS SOUTH INTO REGION AS RELATED LLV LOW PRESSURE IS
PUSHING EAST ALREADY. SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO MIX TO
SNOW BEFORE ALL THE PCPN ENDS LATER THIS EVENING. NAILING THIS IS
DIFFICULT AS USUAL. BUT WILL KEEP A COUPLE OF INCHES ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IN THE NE AS PER PREV FCST...WILL ADJUST AS NEEDED AT
THE LAST MINUTE.

HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ENERGETIC SHORT WAVE HITTING NRN CA COAST AT THIS TIME REACHES THE
WRN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. SYSTEM TAKES ON SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
AS IT REACHES OUR AREA THURSDAY MORNING. DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
AND WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME FOR COLUMN TO SATURATE. BELIEVE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL KEEP COLUMN COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW BY
THE TIME PCPN BEGINS. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 3
INCHES. ISENTROPIC LIFT A BIT MARGINAL AND FRONTOGENETIC SIGNALS
RATHER WEAK. BUT THE OVERALL DEEP UVV FROM GOOD QV CONVERGENCE IS
RATHER IMPRESSIVE. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

THEN FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS...GOING INTO THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOTHING MAJOR TO NOTE.

&&

.AVIATION...PCPN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVE...AND IN DOING SO
WILL IMPROVE LIFR CIGS EVENTUALLY TO MVFR LEVELS THIS EVENING. LLVL
RH PROGS AND BUFKIT SUGGEST GOING TO A SCT REGIME LATER IN THE NIGHT
WITH NW WINDS CRANKING UP IN TIGHT SFC PRES PRGADIENT AROUND
DEPARING LOW PRES.

&&

.MARINE...INTENSIFYING PRES GRAD ACRS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS TNGT AND A SUBSEQUENT BUILDUP OF WAVES...WITH
HIGHEST WAVES TOWARDS OPEN WATER DUE TO OFFSHORE COMPONENT OF WIND.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...05
AVIATION/MARINE...10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
950 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-091030-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
950 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WARM TEMPERATURES...LINGERING MELTING SNOW...AND RECENT RAIN MAY
RESULT IN MINOR LOW LAND FLOODING AS WELL AS RIVER FLOODING. ICE
JAMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ON RIVERS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH MID WEEK DUE TO THE
RAINFALL AND REMAINING MELTING SNOW. SOME RIVERS WILL REACH
BANKFULL...AS WELL AS FLOOD STAGE LEADING TO AREAS OF RIVER
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LMZ643>646-091030-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
950 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

COLLAR
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1112 AM CST TUE JAN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TORNADO          3 NE NEW MUNSTER        42.61N 88.19W
01/07/2008  F3               KENOSHA            WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 15 INJ *** UPDATED INFORMATION ON INJURIES AND
            PRELIMINARY EF-SCALE RATING FROM SURVEY TEAM OF EF-3 WITH
            ESTIMATED 140-150 MPH WINDS. STATE HIGHWAY 50 AND COUNTY
            HIGHWAY O. 12 HOMES DESTROYED...SOME WITH NOTHING BUT
            FOUNDATIONS LEFT. LARGE TREES DOWN. ONE THREE-FOOT ROUND
            OAK TREE DOWNED WITH A SMALL TRAILER WRAPPED AROUND IT.

&&

REM