River Flood Warning 126, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
205 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008

.SHORT TERM...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATED. WAKE LOW PRODUCED A FEW GUSTS TO 37 KNOTS.
ALSO INTERESTING EYE-LIKE FEATURE ON MCV. DEW POINTS HAVE BEHIND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HIGH DEW POINT AXIS TO
THE WEST JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW CAP THERE WITH BAND OF LOW CLOUDS. 12Z NAM SHOWED RAPID
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND EFFECTS OF DISSIPATED COMPLEX NEW RUC
SOUNDINGS HAVE A STRONG CAP WITH ELEVATED CAPE. WITH DRY MID
LEVELS AND STILL A CAP...ALTHOUGH IT DOES WEAKEN.

THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST
IOWA AND CENTRAL IL. MODELS PICK THIS UP...BUT DO NOT BRING IT
NORTH. POSSIBLY DUE TO STRONGER CAP.

EXPECT MAIN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO BE LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS OCCURS AT TIME
OF CONVECTIVE MINIMUM...AND WITH A MORE WEST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...A PROPAGATING MCS IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. WE MAY BE LEFT WITH THIS SOME MODERATE CONVECTION
WITH THE FRONT. AS A RESULT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ANTICIPATED.

COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE FAR SOUTHEAST BY NOON...THUS THE SEVERE
THREAT SATURDAY SHOULD BE TO OUT SOUTH AND EAST. NICE DRYING
BEHIND FRONT WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 50S BY EVENING.

CAP AROUND 700MB AND LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWERS
FROM DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE
SHOULD BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LARGE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH GENERATES SOME
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...
06 GFS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH 00Z ECMWF. EARLIER 00Z GFS DIFFERED
IN LATE DAYS...WITH 06Z RUN OF GFS IN LINE WITH ECMWF. NEW 12Z
WENT BACK MORE TOWARDS OLD 00Z SOLUTION...BUT THESE DIFFERENCES
ARE MAINLY BEYOND 7 DAYS.

MODELS GOING TO A MOVE ZONAL JET ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CANADA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE JET SINKING SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH INTO WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAKEN AND
STALL. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN INITIALLY...BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BRINGS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF TO CENTRAL
WI...THEN SAGGING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO COME ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WILL PLAY CEILINGS IN THE
VFR CATEGORY BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE STORMS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ
AVIATION/MARINE...10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
805 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-121100-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
805 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE STORMS
COULD TURN SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND HAIL TO TWO
INCHES.

SOME LAKES...RIVERS AND STREAMS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. A PORTION
OF THE ROCK RIVER IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE
MODERATE FLOODING...WITH THE STRETCH OF THE RIVER NEAR NEWVILLE
STILL AT MAJOR FLOOD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-121100-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
805 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.  THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD TURN SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS EXCEEDING 50
KNOTS AND HAIL TO TWO INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

MBK
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
700 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TORNADO          2 SE MAYVILLE           43.48N 88.52W
06/12/2008                   DODGE              WI   NWS STORM SURVEY

            A BRIEF EF-0 TORNADO SPUN UP 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
            MAYVILLE. THE TORNADO LASTED FOR LESS THAN A MINUTE. THE
            PATH LENGTH WAS 0.1 MILE AND THE MAX WIDTH WAS 20 YARDS.

0704 PM     TORNADO          5 S MARKESAN            43.64N 88.99W
07/07/2008                   GREEN LAKE         WI   NWS STORM SURVEY

            AN EF-1 TORNADO SPUN UP AT 704 PM 4.9 MILES SOUTH OF
            MARKESAN AND TRAVELLED 1.0 MILE TO 4.3 MILES SSE OF
            MARKESAN BY 706 PM. THE MAX PATH WIDTH WAS 75 YARDS.

0827 PM     LIGHTNING        WATERTOWN               43.19N 88.72W
07/07/2008                   JEFFERSON          WI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LIGHTNING STRUCK A 16 YEAR OLD BOY AND KILLED HIM.

0533 PM     TORNADO          WSW DALTON              43.66N 89.21W
07/10/2008                   GREEN LAKE         WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AN EF-1 TORNADO SPUN UP AT 533 PM 0.5 MILES WSW OF DALTON
            AND TRAVELLED 1.1 MILES TO 0.4 MILES ESE OF DALTON BY 535
            PM. THE MAX PATH WIDTH WAS 50 YARDS.

&&

BORGHOFF