River Flood Warning 125, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
205 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008

.SHORT TERM...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATED. WAKE LOW PRODUCED A FEW GUSTS TO 37 KNOTS.
ALSO INTERESTING EYE-LIKE FEATURE ON MCV. DEW POINTS HAVE BEHIND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HIGH DEW POINT AXIS TO
THE WEST JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW CAP THERE WITH BAND OF LOW CLOUDS. 12Z NAM SHOWED RAPID
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND EFFECTS OF DISSIPATED COMPLEX NEW RUC
SOUNDINGS HAVE A STRONG CAP WITH ELEVATED CAPE. WITH DRY MID
LEVELS AND STILL A CAP...ALTHOUGH IT DOES WEAKEN.

THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST
IOWA AND CENTRAL IL. MODELS PICK THIS UP...BUT DO NOT BRING IT
NORTH. POSSIBLY DUE TO STRONGER CAP.

EXPECT MAIN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO BE LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS OCCURS AT TIME
OF CONVECTIVE MINIMUM...AND WITH A MORE WEST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...A PROPAGATING MCS IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. WE MAY BE LEFT WITH THIS SOME MODERATE CONVECTION
WITH THE FRONT. AS A RESULT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ANTICIPATED.

COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE FAR SOUTHEAST BY NOON...THUS THE SEVERE
THREAT SATURDAY SHOULD BE TO OUT SOUTH AND EAST. NICE DRYING
BEHIND FRONT WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 50S BY EVENING.

CAP AROUND 700MB AND LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWERS
FROM DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE
SHOULD BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LARGE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH GENERATES SOME
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...
06 GFS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH 00Z ECMWF. EARLIER 00Z GFS DIFFERED
IN LATE DAYS...WITH 06Z RUN OF GFS IN LINE WITH ECMWF. NEW 12Z
WENT BACK MORE TOWARDS OLD 00Z SOLUTION...BUT THESE DIFFERENCES
ARE MAINLY BEYOND 7 DAYS.

MODELS GOING TO A MOVE ZONAL JET ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CANADA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE JET SINKING SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH INTO WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAKEN AND
STALL. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN INITIALLY...BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BRINGS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF TO CENTRAL
WI...THEN SAGGING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO COME ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WILL PLAY CEILINGS IN THE
VFR CATEGORY BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE STORMS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ
AVIATION/MARINE...10

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