River Flood Warning 110, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
138 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

VERY ACTIVE NIGHT IN STORE. EXPECT REPEATED DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA. RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET
IS PARKED OVER THE REGION AND WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP LIFT. VERY
MOIST AIR FLOWING NORTH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES. WK SFC TROF/WMFNT WORKING NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
EVENING. GOOD LLV SHEAR WITH SE FLOW AHEAD THIS TROF.  THIS IS A
VERY BAD SITUATION FOR AN ALEADY SATURATED REGION. WE COULD SEE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS EXCEED 3 INCHES. THE FOCUS FOR THE
HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND SE OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM
DUBUQUE IOWA NORTHWEST THROUGH DANE COUNTY TO GREEN LAKE COUNTY.
SAUK COUNTY WILL LIKELY GET SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAIN...BUT THE WORST SHOULD BE SE OF THIS REGION.

FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN SOME AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE
FLOODING...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE VERY SATURATED SOILS...IT WILL BE EASIER FOR
THE WIND TO KNOCK DONW TREES AND POWER LINES.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY SOUTHEAST...AS
THE PATTERN IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST.

EVENTUALLY THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE SHIFTING FROM A MOIST
AND ACTIVE SW FLOW TO A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL TURN MUCH
QUIETER NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A STRONG COMPLEX
COMING THROUGH HERE SUN AFT/EVE WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND
POSSIBLE S/W. THE GFS IS VERY STRONG WITH THIS...BUT LOOKS
OVERDONE.

MON THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING DRY AND COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WANING TOWARD 18Z. EXPECT MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND THE STORMS. ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST
WHICH WILL HELP TO QUICKLY LOWER THE CIGS AND VSBYS AROUND THE
STORMS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-
     056>060-062>072.

LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...05
AVIATION/MARINE...08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-131200-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
330 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...
PRODUCING HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS. THIS COULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT... DAMAGING AND LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING...AND
AGGRAVATE THE MANY FLOODING PROBLEMS REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. THUS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT.

MANY LAKES...RIVERS AND STREAMS REMAIN WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...OR
ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. A FEW SITES HAVE OR WILL EXCEED
RECORD STAGES. SEE OUR ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES
INTERNET PAGE FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM PORT
WASHINGTON...TO JANESVILLE ON FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE TO THE
NORTHWEST. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-131200-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
330 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL TO PING PONG
BALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. AN ISOLATED
WATERSPOUT IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

BORGHOFF
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
715 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 PM     TORNADO          6 NE STOUGHTON          42.98N 89.14W
06/12/2008                   DANE               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO OCCURRED BETWEEN HIGHWAYS B AND W IN EASTERN DANE
            COUNTY.

&&

KRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
716 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 PM     TORNADO          W HAVEN                 43.85N 87.75W
06/12/2008                   SHEBOYGAN          WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SPOTTED NEAR I-43 AND COUNTY ROAD FF

&&

FRANKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
717 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     W UTICA                 42.97N 89.12W
06/12/2008                   DANE               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER WAS LOOKING EAST NORTHEAST FROM LOCATION.

&&

KRR

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
812 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TORNADO          5 W PARDEEVILLE         43.53N 89.40W
06/12/2008                   COLUMBIA           WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POSSIBLE TORNADO PER EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT INFORMATION.

&&

KRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
815 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TORNADO          5 E PARDEEVILLE         43.53N 89.20W
06/12/2008                   COLUMBIA           WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            COORECTION TO LOCATION IN PREVIOUS REPORT. POSSIBLE
            TORNADO PER EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT INFORMATION.

&&

KRR