River Flood Warning 104, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
138 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

VERY ACTIVE NIGHT IN STORE. EXPECT REPEATED DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA. RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET
IS PARKED OVER THE REGION AND WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP LIFT. VERY
MOIST AIR FLOWING NORTH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES. WK SFC TROF/WMFNT WORKING NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
EVENING. GOOD LLV SHEAR WITH SE FLOW AHEAD THIS TROF.  THIS IS A
VERY BAD SITUATION FOR AN ALEADY SATURATED REGION. WE COULD SEE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS EXCEED 3 INCHES. THE FOCUS FOR THE
HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND SE OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM
DUBUQUE IOWA NORTHWEST THROUGH DANE COUNTY TO GREEN LAKE COUNTY.
SAUK COUNTY WILL LIKELY GET SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAIN...BUT THE WORST SHOULD BE SE OF THIS REGION.

FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN SOME AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE
FLOODING...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE VERY SATURATED SOILS...IT WILL BE EASIER FOR
THE WIND TO KNOCK DONW TREES AND POWER LINES.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY SOUTHEAST...AS
THE PATTERN IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST.

EVENTUALLY THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE SHIFTING FROM A MOIST
AND ACTIVE SW FLOW TO A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL TURN MUCH
QUIETER NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A STRONG COMPLEX
COMING THROUGH HERE SUN AFT/EVE WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND
POSSIBLE S/W. THE GFS IS VERY STRONG WITH THIS...BUT LOOKS
OVERDONE.

MON THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING DRY AND COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WANING TOWARD 18Z. EXPECT MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND THE STORMS. ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST
WHICH WILL HELP TO QUICKLY LOWER THE CIGS AND VSBYS AROUND THE
STORMS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-
     056>060-062>072.

LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...05
AVIATION/MARINE...08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
200 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-131200-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
200 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER...AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH. A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES. THIS WILL RENEW THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...AND AGGRAVATE THE MANY FLOODING PROBLEMS REMAINING ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEKEND HEAVY RAINFALL.
THUS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MANY LAKES...RIVERS AND STREAMS REMAIN WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...OR
ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. A FEW SITES HAVE OR WILL EXCEED
RECORD STAGES. SEE OUR ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES
INTERNET PAGE FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...AND AT TIMES
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-131200-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
200 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL TO ONE INCH
IN DIAMETER...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. AN ISOLATED
WATERSPOUT IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...AND AT TIMES SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

WOOD
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
149 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             DELAVAN                 42.60N 88.62W
06/12/2008  M0.25 INCH       WALWORTH           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
149 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-122000-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...BERLIN...FOND DU LAC...
SHEBOYGAN...BARABOO...PORTAGE...WISCONSIN DELLS...BEAVER DAM...
WEST BEND...PORT WASHINGTON...DODGEVILLE...MADISON...JEFFERSON...
LAKE MILLS...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...MILWAUKEE...DARLINGTON...
MONROE...JANESVILLE...BELOIT...ELKHORN...LAKE GENEVA...RACINE...
KENOSHA
149 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
UNTIL 8PM CDT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WALWORTH...
JEFFERSON...AND WAUKESHA COUNTIES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 40MPH. THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO
65MPH AND HAIL TO QUARTERS IS POSSIBLE. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS LEADING TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO IOWA AND LAFAYETTE
COUNTIES BETWEEN 2 AND 3PM WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE.

KUHLMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
206 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 PM     HAIL             2 SW EAST TROY          42.77N 88.43W
06/12/2008  M0.50 INCH       WALWORTH           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
209 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW EAST TROY          42.74N 88.47W
06/12/2008                   WALWORTH           WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN REPORTED DOWN THROUGH OUT
            WALWORTH COUNTY

&&

KRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
217 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SW EAST TROY          42.77N 88.43W
06/12/2008  M1.50 INCH       WALWORTH           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A REPORT OF 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN 15 MINUTES.

&&

KRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
228 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE EAST TROY          42.82N 88.36W
06/12/2008                   WALWORTH           WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO SEMI TRACTOR TRAILERS BLOWN OVER AT I-43 AND STONE
            SCHOOL ROAD AT THE WAUKESHA AND WALWORTH COUNTY LINE.
            EVENT TIME IS ESTIMATED.

&&

KRR