River Flood Warning 102, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
314 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

.SHORT TERM...

WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL IOWA TO THE
MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER TONIGHT...EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. FAIRLY ROBUST LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SEEN
ON THE NAM AND GFS OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME.

HOWEVER...SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE.
SURFACE DEW POINTS NOT EXPECTED TO RISE MUCH TONIGHT...WITH AIR
COLUMN SOMEWHAT DRY. WEAK ELEVATED CAPE SHOWN ON AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. SO...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED...WILL GO WITH A LOW
CHANCE POP IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST HALF...AND SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE AIR PARCEL TRAJECTORY FORECAST INDICATED AIRMASS FOR TONIGHT
FROM SOUTHEAST IOWA...WHERE LOWS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE MID 50S.
WILL GO MID TO UPPER 50S GIVEN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOLER IN FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...WITH BRISK
NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE...DUE TO A POSSIBLE PNEUMONIA FRONT MOVING
SOUTH DOWN THE LAKESHORE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

NEXT UPPER LOW OVER MONTANA WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST TO ND/S CANADA
REGION THURSDAY WITH DEVELOPING UPPER DIFLUENCE ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS SHOW SOME PVA BUT THIS MAY BE MORE AN EFFECT OF CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE ND AREA THURSDAY...WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. CAPE RAISES TO NEAR 2000 J/KG ON NAM...SO THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY. SEVERE PARAMETERS SHOWING EHIS
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 WITH BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS AROUND 20 TO 30.
PCPBLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.8...SO SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE
AGAIN WITH MODELS INDICATING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OR RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
CERTAINLY NOT WANTED WITH RIVERS ALREADY NEAR RECORD LEVELS.
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED.

GFS AND ECMWF IS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TAKING WESTERN UPPER LOW INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA ON FRIDAY...PUSHING COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...ALTHOUGH FRONT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...

UPPER LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST TO NEAR JAMES BAY ON SATURDAY...WITH
GENERAL WNW UPPER FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TIMING OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WNW UPPER FLOW DIFFICULT TO TIME.

UPPER RIDGE NOW FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS OR
MINNESOTA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES. GUSTY WEST WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNSET. ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD TOO WIDELY SCATTERED TO MENTION
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. POSSIBLE PNEUMONIA FRONT COULD BRING SOME
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO KMKE AND KENW LATER TONIGHT...BEGINNING
AROUND 08Z WEDNESDAY AT KMKE...AND AROUND 10Z WEDNESDAY AT KENW.
THEY SHOULD LAST FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING. WILL ADD
SOME GUSTS FOR THIS PERIOD IN THE 00Z WEDNESDAY TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 01Z WEDNESDAY FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT
TIMES AT THE GLERL SITES AND THE SHEBOYGAN CMAN. THESE GUSTS ARE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SHORELINE AND HARBORS...AS SOLID TEMPERATURE
INVERSION OVER THE LAKE PREVENTS MIXING PER ABSENCE OF GUSTS FROM
THE SOUTH MID LAKE BUOY. GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNSET.

AFOREMENTIONED PNEUMONIA FRONT SHOULD REACH THE NORTHERN LAKE ZONES
BY 06Z WEDNESDAY...QUICKLY MOVING DOWN THE LAKESHORE TO WINTHROP
HARBOR ILLINOIS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR HIGHER
POSSIBLE. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUBSIDING. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
WINDS...WILL NOT ISSUE ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
THIS MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT IF THESE CONDITIONS DEVELOP.

&&

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ
AVIATION/MARINE...08/WOOD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
920 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-111415-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
920 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND HAS CAUSED MANY RIVERS
AND STREAMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE...OR
ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. A FEW SITES HAVE OR WILL
EXCEED RECORD STAGES. SEE OUR ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICES INTERNET PAGE FOR DETAILS.

SEVERAL ROADS AND BRIDGES REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT MAY
BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IF THIS OCCURS...IT WILL
AGGRAVATE ANY EXISTING FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE AREA.

MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-111415-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
920 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED...WITH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS.
THIS WILL CREATE LOCALLY HIGH WAVES UP TO 3 FEET NEAR THE
SHORELINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
AGAIN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

TZ
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
525 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             2 ENE DELAFIELD         43.08N 88.36W
06/07/2008  M4.25 INCH       WAUKESHA           WI   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT OF A MEASURED 5 INCH HAIL STONE FROM
            SATURDAY JUNE 7TH. THE HAIL STONE FELL JUST WEST OF
            PEWAUKEE LAKE...AND JUST TO THE EAST OF HIGHWAY
            83...NORTH OF NAGA-WAUKEE GOLF COURSE ON THE EAST SIDE OF
            DELAFIELD.

&&

LAMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
527 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             2 ENE DELAFIELD         43.08N 88.36W
06/07/2008  M5.00 INCH       WAUKESHA           WI   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT OF A MEASURED 5 INCH HAIL STONE FROM
            SATURDAY JUNE 7TH. THE HAIL STONE FELL JUST WEST OF
            PEWAUKEE LAKE...AND JUST TO THE EAST OF HIGHWAY
            83...NORTH OF NAGA-WAUKEE GOLF COURSE ON THE EAST SIDE OF
            DELAFIELD.

&&

EDITED BECAUSE SOFTWARE WOULD NOT ALLOW AN ENTRY HIGHER THAN 4.25
INCHES.

LAMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
549 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             2 ENE DELAFIELD         43.08N 88.36W
06/07/2008  M5.00 INCH       WAUKESHA           WI   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT OF A MEASURED 5 INCH HAIL STONE FROM
            SATURDAY JUNE 7TH. THE HAIL STONE FELL JUST WEST OF
            PEWAUKEE LAKE...AND JUST TO THE EAST OF HIGHWAY
            83...NORTH OF NAGA-WAUKEE GOLF COURSE ON THE EAST SIDE OF
            DELAFIELD.

&&

EDITED TO CORRECT EVENT TIME.

LAMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
729 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     LIGHTNING        1 SE VERONA             42.98N 89.52W
06/08/2008                   DANE               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LIGHTNING STRUCK A HOME IN THE 700 BLOCK OF HARVEST LANE
            IN VERONA. AROUND 6000 DOLLARS IN DAMAGE TO THE
            ELECTRICAL SYSTEM...THE HVAC
            SYSTEM...APPLIANCES...COMPUTERS AND TELEVISIONS. TIME WAS
            ESTIMATED.

&&

BORGHOFF