Flood Watch 3, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
326 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS ON WAA/MOIST ADVECTION GENERATED MCS...THEN
SVR POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LASTLY...GFS SOLUTION FOR
SUNDAY NEEDS TO BE MONITORED.

DECENT 850-700MB THETAE ADVECTION ONGOING HELPING TO MAINTAIN TSTM
CLUSTER/MCS ACRS SRN WI TNGT. QUITE A MOISTURE GRADIENT ON H8 00Z UA
WITH 10C TD AT DVN AND -2C AT GRB. GOOD SPEED CONVERGENCE AS WELL.
CONVECTION EXTENDS WELL TO THE SW ACRS IA INTO SE NEB AND NW MO.
THIS ALL RIDING TO THE NE...THUS HAVE OPTED GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH
FOR SOME OF OUR WRN CNTYS.

MAIN STORY WILL BE HOW ALL THIS CONVECTION PLAYS OUT FOR TODAY AS
SEVERAL FACTORS POINT TOWARDS SIGGY STORMS. WATER VAPOR/RUC SHOWS
STG 32 UNIT VORT ACRS COLORADO. THIS SYSTEM/TROUGH PULLS OUT AND
HEADS NE AND TAKES ON A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT LOOK TO IT AS IT
HEADS NE TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z SATURDAY. BEST DCVA DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL LATER THIS EVE. THAT AND THE POTENTIAL LACK OF HEATING
TODAY ARE ABOUT THE ONLY NEGATIVES. PLENTY OF OTHER POSITIVE THINGS
GOING ON FOR SVR WX POTENTIAL. UPPER JET ROUNDING TROUGH PLACES US
IN A FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENT REGION ABOVE A FAVORABLLY STG H8 LLJ.
MOST OF THE PARAMETERS ARE IN THE MODERATE OR STRONG CATEGORY ON THE
LOCAL SVR WX CHECKLIST. THE MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL WITH 60 DEW POINTS
READY TO MOVE IN FROM IL AND IA. SFC AND H8 LOWS STRENGTHEN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPCH UPPER WAVE FROM COLORADO AND BOTH MOVE TO OUR
NORTHWEST. GREATEST Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE ARRIVES LATER TODAY AND
THIS EVE. AGAIN THE ONLY REAL UNCERTAINTY IS HOW UNSTABLE WE WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME. NEEDLESS TO SAY WE WILL MAINTAIN THE SVR WORDING
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS IN PLACE.
IN THE END ANY SUNSHINE WILL DRIVE STORM MODE AND WOULD MORE
LIKELY SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LOCAL WRF20 SHOWING MORE OF
A LINEAR SQUALL LINE WITH APPCH DYNAMICS THIS AFTN/ERLY THIS EVE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE H5 TROUGH.
UPPER LOW HEADS NE INTO CANADA ON SATURDAY AND AIRMASS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COLDER. PLENTY OF LLVL RH AT THE OUTSET OF SATURDAY THO
PROGS DO SHOW DRYING WITH TIME AS THE DAY WEARS ALONG.

GFS OPERATIONAL RUN LOOKS A BIT OMINOUS FOR MEASUREABLE SNOW
SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING AS UPPER LOW AND H8 LOW TRACK FAVORABLY CLOSE
TO OUR SE. HOWEVER...THIS IS OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLES AND
ECMWF/UKMET AND CANADIAN WHICH HAVE MORE OF A SOUTHEASTWARD
PLACEMENT OF KEY FEATURES. FOR NOW WILL TRIM BACK ON THE BULLISH MEX
MOS POPS.

&&
10

.AVIATION....AVIATION...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM KANSAS TO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN BY EVENING. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
OUT OF AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS KANSAS LOW NEARS REGION.
THROUGH MORNING HOURS EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS BECOMING MVFR
CEILINGS AS CONVECTION WEAKENS LATER THIS MORNING. IFR VISIBILITIES
IN FOG WILL BE BRIEFLY LIFR IN FOG AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID
MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND HAZE IN
LATE MORNING AS PRECIPITATION ENDS. FOR THE AFTERNOON VFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES AROUND 6 MILES IN HAZE WITH IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES OCCURRING IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. PASSAGE OF COLD
FRONT EARLY TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES WITH ENDING OF PRECIPITATION. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY TONIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE NORTHWEST...FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER LAKE MAINTAIN DECENT
INVERSION. THIS KEEPS STRONGER WIND GUSTS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CATEGORY FROM TRANSLATING DOWNWARD. SO...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW. BEST CHANCE STILL APPEARS TO BE ON
SATURDAY...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION HELPING TO MIX DOWN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ056-062-063-067>069.

LM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
419 PM CDT THU APR 24 2008

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-250945-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
419 PM CDT THU APR 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.

SEVERAL RIVERS...INCLUDING THE FOX RIVER AND THE ROCK RIVER...WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

SEVERAL RIVERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

LMZ643>646-250945-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
419 PM CDT THU APR 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE MET FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...DUE TO BRISK WINDS AND HIGH WAVES.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS.

WOOD
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1245 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1243 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NW BELMONT            42.77N 90.37W
04/25/2008  M1.15 INCH       LAFAYETTE          WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            1.15 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONE HOUR FROM 1130PM TO 1230 AM

&&

TZAJDEL