Wind Advisory 1, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

000 
WWUS72 KMHX 102207
NPWMHX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
507 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2008

NCZ047-103-110200-
/O.CON.KMHX.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-080211T0200Z/
MAINLAND DARE-OUTER BANKS DARE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KILL DEVIL HILLS...KITTY HAWK...
NAGS HEAD...SOUTHERN SHORES
507 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DARE COUNTY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR MAINLAND AND OUTER BANKS DARE COUNTY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH
WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLAND DARE COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS HAVE ALREADY GUSTED
TO AROUND 50 MPH AT THE ALLIGATOR RIVER BRIDGE AND AROUND 46 MPH
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORY AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED SLOWLY
DIMINISH AFTER DARK AND WILL DECREASE BELOW 30 MPH AFTER 9 PM.

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES AND ACROSS BRIDGES AND ELEVATED HIGHWAYS.
PLEASE USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
946 AM EST SUN FEB 10 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG WEST WINDS AND VERY LOW RH WILL PRODUCE HIGH FIRE DANGER
AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT TODAY. THE FRONT ON WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT RH WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MONDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP TUE NIGHT AND WED AS COMPLEX
LOW PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W AND S. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN THU AND
FRI.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST PRETTY WELL ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH NO UPDATE PLANNED.
THE 12Z MHX SOUNDING VERY DRY SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY
AROUND 1/10 OF AN INCH AND FCST MAX TEMP VALUES INTO THE MIDDLE
60S AS CAA IS OVERCOME BY DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND FULL SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE OFF COAST EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRES THROUGH MON NIGHT. WENT WITH COOL SIDE OF GDNC
TEMPS..ESPECIALLY FOR MIN TEMPS. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
MSTR ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE TUE...WITH
DECENT CHC OF RAIN MOST ZONES TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST...EXTENDED CHC POPS A FEW HOURS
LONGER ON WED AND DROPPED SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI AFTN. HPC PREFERS
SLOWER ECMWF WITH NEXT FRONT ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR PREVAILS THOUGH WSW WINDS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO GUST INTO THE
15-20 KT RANGE. THINK THIS WILL INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS 25-35 KT DURING PEAK HEATING/BEST MIXING HOURS OF 15-22Z...SO
WILL AMEND TAFS ACCORDINGLY AS THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE TERMINALS. WINDS
RELAX SLOWLY THIS EVENING AND INTO MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
AREA BEHIND FRONT. COULD SEE A FEW MID CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTN WITH
FRONT BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN FEW/SCT.

NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR AND SHRA EXPECTED TO BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW THEN DRAGS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH LATE WED. OTHERWISE VFR TO PREVAIL IN EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
BRIEF LULL IN WINDS BETWEEN FRONTS ATTM...THO W/WSW WINDS STILL
CLOSE TO SC CRITERIA IN GUSTS. GRADIENT EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN LATER
THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING WITH NEXT DRY FRONT SWINGING THROUGH...SO
EXPECT STEADILY INCRSG WLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. WILL MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS GALE HEADLINES BUT NOT REALLY EXPECTING
GALES TO START UNTIL LATE THIS AFTN. SUSPECT GALES THIS
EVENING WILL BE MAINLY IN GUSTS WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DVLPG WITH CAA BEHIND FRONT...PROMOTING BETTER MIXING OF HIGHER
WINDS ALOFT. WILL WAIT TO EVALUATE 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE CHANGING GALE
WORDING TO GUSTS INSTEAD OF SUSTAINED THO. WENT AHEAD AND STARTED SC
FOR SOUNDS A LITTLE EARLIER AT 16Z WITH SENSORS FROM WEATHERFLOW INC
ALREADY SHOWING FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. SEAS MOSTLY BELOW 6 FT
ACROSS THE AREA ATTM BUT WILL ALSO BUILD WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW...REMAINING LARGEST OFFSHORE WITH WLY FETCH. DUE TO LIMITED
FETCH LENGTHS PERIODS WILL BE VERY SHORT (4-6S) PROMOTING VERY
STEEP/ROUGH WAVE CONDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK AS SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20 MPH
AND RH BELOW 25 PERCENT SHOULD VERIFY EASILY. MOS DEW POINTS PERFORM
POORLY IN WELL MIXED DOWNSLOPING SITUATIONS...THUS WENT 5-10 DEGS
BELOW GDNC FOR THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT LOW RH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ130-135.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...MW
FIRE WEATHER...JBM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
422 AM EST SUN FEB 10 2008

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-110930-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
422 AM EST SUN FEB 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE
DANGEROUS WILDFIRE CONDITIONS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.