Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
425 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW MON AND BE OVER THE AREA MON NIGHT AND
TUE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WED WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE N THU AND FRI.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WDLY SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON SOUND BREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROF BOUNDARIES. COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL N OF AREA BUT WILL DROP
INTO TROF THIS EVENING AND PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. CHC OF TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH SFC BNDRY AND UPR LVL SUPPORT...THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. WITH HIGH
INSTABILITY AND CAPE...ISOLATED SVR WILL REMAIN PSBL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DUE TO PROBLEMS WITH 12Z GFS RUN...RELIED ON NAM12. WEAK HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OVER AREA MON THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE REST OF
PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS...NO POPS THROUGH
EARLY WED. RETURN TO WARM SECTOR ON WED AND KEPT 20 POPS INLAND FOR
PSBL AFTN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON-TUE...THEN WARMER WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL LEAD TO EARLY START TO SUMMER-LIKE
PATTERN WITH BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING OVER AREA...THERMAL TROF INLAND
AND FRONTS REMAINING MAINLY N AND W OF AREA. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL BUT
DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS HPC NUMBERS FOR MAX TEMPS...KEPT MAINLY IN LOW
90S INLAND. 20 POPS EACH DAY FOR PSBL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED CU HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE 4 AREA TERMINALS LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. AS A WEAK BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
HAVE HANDLED BOTH SITUATIONS WITH CB CLOUD GROUPS AND VCNTY SHOWERS
REMARKS. SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER FROM WEST THIS EVENING...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TO NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. ONLY HIGH BASED SCATTERED
CU EXPECTED MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
WILL BE TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL VEER OVERNIGHT BECOMING
NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT ON MONDAY. NOT MUCH OF A SURGE BEHIND THE
FEATURE SO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PASS JUST TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY...AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH ITS
WESTERN EDGE EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...HSA
MARINE...HSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
535 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-020945-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
535 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

NCZ095-098-103-104-020945-
CARTERET-ONSLOW-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
535 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FROM CAPE HATTERAS SOUTH
TO SURF CITY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
501 PM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             5 S CHINQUAPIN          34.75N 77.80W
06/01/2008  E0.75 INCH       DUPLIN             NC   PUBLIC

&&

JW