Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1010 AM EDT MON APR 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING BACK IN WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A CLEARLY VISIBLE LOW ON SAT AND RADAR OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THE BEST DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE E
AND NE OF THE LOW CENTER AND HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS NE OF A LINE
FROM NEAR GREENVILLE TO CAPE LOOKOUT. BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH
IMBEDDED LINES OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER
THE OBX/NE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR TRAINING OF HEAVY
RAINS...BUT GIVEN SWAMP/SANDY/RURAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE NE AND
OBX...AM NOT INCLINED FOR A FLOOD WATCH. CANT RULE OUT LOCALIZED
PONDING OF WATER...ESP IN LOW LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...BUT
DONT THINK WIDESPREAD FLOOD PROBLEMS LIKELY. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
FURTHER TODAY AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE
REGION AND WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH SFC HEATING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL AND HAVE LIKELY POPS BY THIS AFTERNOON
ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS BASED ON N FLOW ALONG
COASTAL PLAINS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS COMBINED WITH LOWERING
THICKNESSES SHOULD MAKE IT A STRUGGLE FOR TEMPS TO TOP THE UPPER 60S
TODAY. ON THE WARM SECTOR IN THE E COULD SEE NEAR 70 TEMPS. SHOWERS
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF SFC HEATING AND THE LOW
DRIFTING TO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA AND HAVE POPS TAPERING BACK
TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND LOW HEIGHTS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LOW WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN TODAY AND EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NE PORTION OF THE CWA TO LOWER 70S SW.
FAIRLY UNIFORM LOWS IN THE MID 50S TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT S OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N AND AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE W. MOIST ONSHORE NELY FLOW WITH WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER LOW REMAINING TUE WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION. NELY FLOW CONTINUES TUE NIGHT AND WED AND MODELS CONTINUE
TO BRING SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION INTO EARLY WED.
WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH WED
MORNING. NELY FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
AGAIN TUE WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO MONDAY. A SLOW WARMUP BEGINS
WED...ESPECIALLY SW SECTIONS AS NELY FLOW HOLDS TEMPS DOWN ACROSS
THE NERN COUNTIES. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NE TO MID
70S SW. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 5OS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES SLIDES S INTO THE REGION WED NIGHT AND THU WITH
UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING
TREND ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
AWAY FROM THE COAST THU AND FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE AROUND 70 TO
LOWER 70 COASTSIDE. MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND USED A BLEND OF
GRIDDED MOS AND HPC KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
SAT THROUGH SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS AT THE INLAND TAF SITES WITH LOW CEILINGS AT PGV
AND OAJ AND FOG/DRIZZLE AT KINSTON. AT EWN...MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH MVFR. THINK CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BUT STILL LIKELY TO
FALL INTO MVFR AND PERHAPS OCCASIONAL IFR WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW SLOWLY
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
TSTMS DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS
AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SOME DRYING WILL
LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS WEDS INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUES NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WITH 6 FT REPORTED AT
BOTH THE DUCK COE PIER AND DIAMOND BUOY. MADE JUST MINOR CHANGES
TO CURRENT MARINE FORECAST TO CLEAN UP MORNING WORDING AND
INCREASE WINDS JUST A BIT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AS BEST
GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS.

AS THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW VERY SLOWLY PROGRESS SE
AWAY FROM THE COAST THRU THURSDAY...PERSISTENT EASTERLY FETCH AND
BACKSWELL ENERGY WILL BUILD SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET OVER THE WATERS
NORTH OF LOOKOUT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SEAS ARE
LIKELY OVER THOSE WATERS INTO LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ156.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SJ
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC
MARINE...CTC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
522 AM EDT MON APR 21 2008

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-104-220930-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS HYDE-
522 AM EDT MON APR 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS OVER THE REGION. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ103-220930-
OUTER BANKS DARE-
522 AM EDT MON APR 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OUTER BANKS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS
TODAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS OVER THE REGION. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
306 PM EDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             STELLA                  34.77N 77.14W
04/21/2008  E0.75 INCH       CARTERET           NC   PUBLIC

&&

CQUELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
308 PM EDT MON APR 21 2008

NCZ093-095-212015-
CRAVEN-CARTERET-
308 PM EDT MON APR 21 2008

...DEVELOPING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CARTERET AND SOUTHERN
CRAVEN COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 308 PM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
NEWPORT...MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 7 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE NEAR NEWPORT AT 405 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED
BY THE STORMS INCLUDE CAPE CARTERET...EMERALD
ISLE...HAVELOCK...MOREHEAD CITY...BROAD CREEK...CHERRY POINT AIR
STATION... AND HARLOWE.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN ON
AREA ROADWAYS TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.