Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
948 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND AT THE SFC ADVANCING TOWARDS THE REGION
TODAY...AND THEN LINGERING OVER NC/VA INTO TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO A
WETTER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE SE BY MID WEEK AND LAST UNTIL THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC LOW PRES CENTERED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AT 13Z WITH H5
CLOSED LOW OVER ERN KY. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
REQUIRED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. CONVECTION
STARTING TO DECREASE...BUT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING OVER THE OUTER BANKS AND
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST
EXPECT FOR TIMING ISSUES.

A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IF
SUFFICIENT SFC HEATING DEVELOPS WITH GOOD DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY
CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. SPC HAS MOST OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN
THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SE TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFFSHORE MON NIGHT AND TUE. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW SLIGHTLY S WITH
THE BEST DYNAMICS SHIFTING INTO THE NERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE SHOWERS AND TSTM IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DYNAMICS WILL
PERSIST JUST THE NE OF THE LOW CENTER WHICH WITH LATEST TRACK FROM
THE MODELS IS SUGGESTING THE OUTER BANKS AND NE NC POTENTIALLY
SEEING THE GREATEST QPF FROM THE EVENT WITH TOTALS GREATER THAN 3
INCHES. HAVE NOT GONE QUITE AS WET AS MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AT
THIS POINT GIVEN SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON LOCATION OF HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS AND MODELS
USUAL DIFFICULTY IN PIN POINTING THE TRACK OF CUT-OFF LOWS. HAVE
HIGHEST POPS THROUGH MONDAY THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF MON NIGHT
INTO TUE NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUING TO FEED INTO
THE REGION AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES WEDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE WED WITH RIDGING
BUILDING ALOFT. DEEP LAYER E-NELY FLOW WILL MINIMIZE THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND EVEN WITH COOL AND MOIST NELY
FLOW OFF THE WATER THE MODELS DEPICTING SUFFICIENT MIXING TO
PRECLUDE ST/STCU FROM PERSISTING MUCH MORE THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS WED. THE SFC HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE THU
AND FRI WITH SE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AND AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM BRINGING A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS AS OF THE PRESENT TIME
IN CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FT AND SHOWERS. CONVECTION DIMINISHING AT
THE CURRENT TIME. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS LEADING EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD POOL ALOFT
MOVES OVER THE AREA. WITH AT LEAST SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE
TODAY...WILL SEE DESTABILIZATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IT WILL
BE TOUGH TO PINPOINT THE LOCATION/TIMING OF THIS ACTIVITY THOUGH.
THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED TONIGHT AND
MONDAY AS THEY DRIFT SLOWLY SSE ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THIS HAPPENS BUT AGAIN TIMING
DIFFICULT. MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD SEE AN ENHANCEMENT OF
THE CONVECTION AS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT PASS ACROSS THE
AREA. MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THAT OCCURS.

ONCE THE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE BUT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT CWF AS S/SE FLOW IS INCREASING
AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SFC LOW OVER THE ERN PIEDMONT. SEAS
ALSO BUILDING WITH DIAMOND BUOY BACK UP TO 5 FEET AS OF 13Z.
CURRENT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND TWEAKS TO THE FCST
WILL MAINLY BE TO REMOVE AFTERNOON WORDING.

FAVORING GFS SOLUTION WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS AND IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF AND UKMET. GIVEN
THIS...WILL BE CLOSE TO WW3 GUIDANCE FOR SEAS. WW3 SHOWS SEAS
BUILDING TO SCA RANGE ACROSS SRN WATERS EXTENDING NWD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON TOWARDS HATTERAS. UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURE
WILL DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS WILL DIMINISH
S OF OCRACOKE INLET TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN NEAR 6 FT CENTRAL WATERS.
BY TUE AFTERNOON SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TO 6 FT ACROSS THE NRN
WATERS AS WELL...IN THE EASTERLY BACKSWELL AS LOW DEPARTS THE AREA
ACROSS NRN WATERS AS WELL...SO RAISED SCA FOR THERE AS WELL. WILL
HAVE SEAS ABOVE 6 FEET MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE DIMINISHING ON THU.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ152.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...CTC/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC
MARINE...CTC/RSB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
554 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

NCZ029-044-079-080-090>094-211000-
MARTIN-PITT-GREENE-BEAUFORT-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
554 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS OVER THE REGION. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

NCZ103-104-211000-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
554 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OUTER BANKS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS OVER THE REGION. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING LOCALIZED FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

NCZ045>047-081-211000-
WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-MAINLAND HYDE-
554 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS OVER THE REGION. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING LOCALIZED FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

NCZ095-098-211000-
CARTERET-ONSLOW-
554 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CRYSTAL COAST OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS OVER THE REGION. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1126 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

NCZ080-094-201600-
BEAUFORT-PAMLICO-
1126 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PAMLICO AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES
UNTIL NOON EDT...

AT 1125 AM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN PAMLICO
COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST BEAUFORT COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR SOUTH CREEK AT 1140AM EDT...PAMLICO
BEACH AT 1155 AM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED BY THE STORMS
INCLUDE BELHAVEN...HOBUCKEN...RANSOMVILLE...ROYAL...AND WINSTEADVILLE.

SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN ON
AREA ROADWAYS TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1257 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

NCZ103-201900-
OUTER BANKS DARE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KILL DEVIL HILLS...KITTY HAWK...
NAGS HEAD...SOUTHERN SHORES
1257 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE OUTER BANKS THROUGH 3 PM...

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE OUTER BANKS FROM
BUXTON AND FRISCO NORTH TO RODANTHE...WAVES AND SALVO THROUGH 3
PM. THIS SLOW-MOVING CLUSTER WILL PRODUCE UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. MOTORISTS SHOULD
BE ALERT FOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
SHOULD BE MOVED INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
114 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

NCZ092-093-201800-
JONES-CRAVEN-
114 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CRAVEN AND JONES COUNTIES UNTIL
200 PM EDT...

AT 114 PM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL JONES
COUNTY...OR ABOUT 13 MILES WEST OF NEW BERN...MOVING NORTH AT 17 MPH.
THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR TUSCARORA AT 135 PM EDT...COVE
CITY AT 140 PM EDT...JASPER AT 150 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS TO BE
AFFECTED BY THE STORMS INCLUDE VANCEBORO...ERNUL...RHEMS...
HONOLULU...CLARK...BELLAIR AND LIMA. HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

TELEPHONE LINES AND METAL PIPES CONDUCT ELECTRICITY. YOU CAN BE
INJURED OR KILLED IF LIGHTNING STRIKES NEARBY. UNPLUG APPLIANCES NOT
NECESSARY FOR OBTAINING WEATHER INFORMATION. DO NOT TAKE A BATH OR
SHOWER. GET OUT OF INDOOR POOLS. AVOID USING THE TELEPHONE OR ANY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCE DURING A THUNDERSTORM UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.