Severe Thunderstorm Warning 173, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
503 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY BACK NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF FAY PASS BY TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. A LINGERING AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL
BUILD OVER THE STATE ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STEAM INTO THE REGION AS THE
REMNANTS OF FAY LIFT W OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS
ARE LIFTING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70 AND E OF HIGHWAY 17 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM
RALEIGH SOUTH TO MYRTLE BEACH IS LIFTING NNE AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON THE MAJORITY OF THE TORNADIC
ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED W OF THE REGION ALONG A WARM FRONT AND
CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER. SUPPORT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL
CONTINUE TO WANE AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AND SHEAR WEAKENS AND
THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS WELL AND HAVE
CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE REGION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT N ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NC AND WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS NE
PORTION AND CHANCE SW. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING KEEPING LOWS IN THE L/M70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF THE REGION THU WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRES REMAINS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH FRI. DEEP MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NE OF THE REGION THU BUT THE TROUGH ALONG WITH WEAK
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY SLIDING EWD ACROSS
THE REGION WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING TIMES. MORE SUNSHINE WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE M/U 80S WHILE HIGH DEWPOINTS
WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT WILL FORM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY
AND IS PROGGED TO PUSH S ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
S OF THE REGION. AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RIDGE TO THE W OF THE REGION AND A TROUGH OFF THE EAST
COAST WHICH WILL DEVELOP A BLOCKING PATTERN KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION TROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WITH MOIST CONDITIONS AND SE WINDS...EXPECT IFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP AGAIN AT MOST TAF SITES. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
MVFR AND VFR ON THU WITH SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AGAIN.

MIX OF IFR/MVFR LIKELY AGAIN THU NIGHT WITH STRATUS AND FOG. VFR
PREVAILING MOST OF REST OF PERIOD. BEST CHC OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRES
DRYS THINGS OUR SUN AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
OBS INDICATE WINDS HAVE VEERED TO SE UP TO OUTER BANKS S OF OREGON
INLET THIS AFTN WITH WEAK BOUNDARY TRYING TO MOVE N. GFS NOW APPEARS
TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON SITUATION...SUPPORTED BY SREF AND ECMWF...AND
FOLLOWED IT THROUGH FCST PERIOD. INVERTED SFC TROFFING WILL DEVELOP
SW TO NE OVER ERN NC TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI...ALLOWING BOUNDARY
TO LIFT N OVER AREA...AND WINDS VEERING TO SE TO S ALL WATERS BY
LATE FRI. TIGHEST PRES GRAD AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER NRN
WATERS THU AND THU NIGHT BUT SPEEDS STILL AROUND 15 KTS AND SEAS UP
TO 5 FT. BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT AND SAT
AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM NW. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND
EARLY SUN. MAIN CAA NE SURGE WILL BE LATE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON
BUT LIMITED TO AROUND 15 KTS.

WW3 FOLLOWED FOR SEAS BUT CAPPED NRN WATERS AT 5 FT LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT.

.RIP CURRENTS...
SE SWELL AROUND 11 SECONDS COMBINED WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW AND A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE CYCLE WILL BRING A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG ALL BEACHES AGAIN ON THU.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JBM
MARINE...JBM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
529 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-280930-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
529 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FAY PASS TO THE WEST AND PUSH A FRONT
WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NORTH CAROLINA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES
OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL PRODUCE
SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
RAIN...THERE IS A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 17.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

NCZ095-098-103-104-280930-
CARTERET-ONSLOW-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
529 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FAY PASS TO THE WEST AND PUSH A FRONT
WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NORTH CAROLINA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES
OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL PRODUCE
SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
RAIN...THERE IS A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 17.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

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