Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1001 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT REGION WITH
A COLDFRONT CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE
TROUGH AND MOVE TO NEAR THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. COUPLED WITH A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT GRIDS WITH CONTINUED CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS OVERNIGHT. SHRA/TS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING. AIRMASS STILL VERY UNSTABLE WITH LIS IN
THE MINUS 6 TO MINUS 8 RANGE OVER SW PORTIONS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH SOME MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO HANG ON TO
SMALL POPS ACROSS THE CWA INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY AS SOME MOISTURE
LINGERS OVER MOST OF THE CWA THEN A SMALL CHC IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
DUE TO SEABREEZE CONVECTION. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.
WILL GO BACK TO SEABREEZE CONVECTION FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER
HEIGHTS INCREASE AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH NOT
MUCH CHANGE. INLAND TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY SO AFTERNOON
CONVECTION POSSIBLE...BUT MAIN STORY FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
HIGH TEMPS. INLAND HIGHS APPROACHING 100 AND LOW/MID 90S ALONG THE
COAST...WITH HEAT ADVISORIES LIKELY. WILL BEGIN COOLING DOWN
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIKE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AFFECT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH LATE EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS THRU 1 AM.  EXPECT MOST
ACTIVITY TO BE DONE EARLY SUN MORN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF STORMS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN MVFR FOG AGAIN THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BE BKN AROUND 5-6 KFT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEN AROUND 8 KFT SUNDAY.

THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY
BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER THAT THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE WITH A TROF OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS. CONVECTION WILL
BE MAINLY DIURNAL EACH DAY...WITH MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
ONLY CHANGE TO MARINE FCST WAS TO HEADLINE SEVERE TSTM WATCH WHICH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL BRIEFLY MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL WATERS
BEFORE PULLING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST JUST A BIT ON SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY VEER TO NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
BEFORE BACKING TO SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY NEXT WEEK. 12Z
GFS/NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE WINDS. WAVEWATCH BRIEFLY BRINGS
SEAS UP TO SMALL CRAFT FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT. SINCE THIS IS
SUCH A SHORT TIMEFRAME AND FOR MAINLY THE OUTER PORTION OF THE ZONE
I KEPT SEAS CAPPED AT 5 FEET. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE
WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JW
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...JAC
MARINE...JAC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
456 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-031000-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
456 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING...AND A FEW STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEAR 105 DEGREES DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ103-104-031000-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
456 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING...AND A FEW STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
428 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

NCZ045>047-080-081-022130-
WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-WESTERN DARE-BEAUFORT-WESTERN HYDE-
428 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HYDE...BEAUFORT...DARE...TYRRELL
AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 428 PM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 41 MILES WEST OF
MANNS HARBOR...OR ABOUT 18 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PLYMOUTH...MOVING EAST
AT 27 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR GUM NECK AT 505 PM
EDT...FRYING PAN LANDING AT 510 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS TO BE
AFFECTED BY THE STORMS INCLUDE COLUMBIA...ALLIGATOR...ALLIGATOR
LAKE...BUFFALO CITY...EAST LAKE...FORT LANDING...KILKENNY...
MASHOES...NEWFOUNDLAND...CENTER OF PHELPS LAKE...PIKE ROAD...
PONZER...PUNGO...PUNGO LAKE...STUMPY POINT...WENONA...WOODLEY...
CENTER OF DARE COUNTY BOMBING RANGE...LAKE WORTH AND LEVELS.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. MOST
LIGHTNING FATALITIES AND INJURIES OCCUR IN OPEN AREAS OR UNDER TREES.
IF OUTDOORS...SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING OR CAR. DO NOT TAKE
SHELTER IN SMALL SHEDS...UNDER ISOLATED TREEES...OR IN CONVERTIBLE
AUTOMOBILES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

AUSTIN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

NCZ046-047-081-103-022345-
TYRRELL-EASTERN DARE-WESTERN DARE-WESTERN HYDE-
705 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HYDE...DARE AND TYRRELL COUNTIES
UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

AT 705 PM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7 MILES WEST OF
MANNS HARBOR TO 29 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANNS HARBOR...OR FROM 7 MILES
WEST OF MANNS HARBOR TO 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF ENGELHARD...MOVING EAST
AT 55 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR MANNS HARBOR AT 710
PM EDT..

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THIS
STORM IS PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY LIGHTNING. MOST
LIGHTNING FATALITIES AND INJURIES OCCUR IN OPEN AREAS OR UNDER TREES.
IF OUTDOORS...SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING OR CAR. DO NOT TAKE
SHELTER IN SMALL SHEDS...UNDER ISOLATED TREEES...OR IN CONVERTIBLE
AUTOMOBILES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
920 PM EDT SAT AUG 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND RODANTHE                35.61N 75.46W
08/02/2008  E50 MPH          DARE               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1016 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

NCZ079-090-091-030315-
DUPLIN-LENOIR-GREENE-
1016 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT GREENE...LENOIR AND DUPLIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM EDT...

AT 1016 PM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16 MILES NORTH
OF LA GRANGE TO 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LA GRANGE...OR FROM 11 MILES
WEST OF FARMVILLE TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOUNT OLIVE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 17 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR LA GRANGE
AT 1115 PM EDT..

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN ON
AREA ROADWAYS TO AVOID HYDROPLANING. THIS STORM IS PRODUCING AN
EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY LIGHTNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT SUNDAY
MORNING FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.