Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
247 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT
WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS LATER TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
TOWARD THE COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLDFRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY AND STALL OVER THE REGION BEFORE DISSIPATING
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINE OF CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY THIS EVENING.
THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THERE HAS BEEN LIMITED CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA...BUT COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE MAIN ACTION GETS HERE IN THE EVENING. GIVEN
HIGH WETBULB ZERO AND FREEZING LEVELS...THINK PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE WIND GUSTS. HAVE GONE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE A
BIT BETTER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STRONG MID-LEVEL ENERGY
ROTATING EAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT WITH
MINS MAINLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SOME OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY AND KEPT POPS GOING THRU FRIDAY MORNING. TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT MOVES EAST INTO THE COASTAL
PLAINS AREA AND LINGERS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE FLOW
OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH
CONTINUING AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THINK EACH AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF SCATTERED
TSTMS...FOCUSING PRIMARILY ON THE SEABREEZE. CHANCES OF TSTMS
DIMINISH BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES.

HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THRU THE WEEKEND WITH MAXES WELL INTO
THE 90S AWAY FROM THE WATER WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE MUGGY 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEK
WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...GETTING
WELL INTO THE 90S FOR MAXES AND REMAINING IN THE MUGGY 70S FOR
MINS. SOMEWHAT BETTER RAIN CHANCES BY THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
AS PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BE A THREAT INTO LATE THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL
BE STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 KNOTS POSSIBLE. MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT IN WAKE OF CONVECTION...SOME LOCALLY LOWER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH LATE EVENING...THEN VEER TO
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BACK TO SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY
WIDELY SCATTERED AND THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING VARIETY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE TROF ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. SEAS WILL
INCREASE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE REST OF THE FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND...THEN STALL OUT ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ALONG THE COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE FRONT LOSES UPPER SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...HSA
MARINE...HSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
324 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2008

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-010730-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
324 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 100 TO 104 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

CULLEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
435 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2008

NCZ047-081-103-312130-
EASTERN DARE-WESTERN DARE-WESTERN HYDE-
435 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HYDE AND DARE COUNTIES UNTIL 530
PM EDT...

AT 435 PM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL
DARE COUNTY...OR ABOUT 14 MILES NORTH OF ENGELHARD...MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR CENTER OF DARE COUNTY
BOMBING RANGE AT 440 PM EDT...LAKE WORTH AT 500 PM EDT...STUMPY POINT
AT 505 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN ON AREA
ROADWAYS TO AVOID HYDROPLANING. THIS STORM IS PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE
AMOUNT OF DEADLY LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

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