Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
955 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. THE TROF AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
BRINGING IN DRIER WEATHER BY LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK MID LVL BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN BROUGHT SOME STRAY SHOWERS INTO
THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND WITH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES SAW SOME
STRONG STORMS DEVELOP. THE BOUNDARY IS NOW S OF THE AREA AND PRECIP
HAS ENDED. THE NAM HAD DRIVEN A SFC BOUNDARY FAR S INTO THE AREA
TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS NOW FAVOR THE RUC MODELS WHICH HAS THE
BOUNDARY TO OUR N WITH THE RETURN OF S FLOW ACROSS ALL AREAS. WELL
INLAND MIXING WILL DROP TD...BUT AS S FLOW PICKS UP LATER THIS AFT
WILL SEE THEM STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE 60S. WITH THE BOUNDARY
N...WILL PUSH POPS BACK UP INTO ALL COUNTIES...THOUGH BEST CHANCE
WILL STILL LINGER ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND FAR NE COUNTIES NEAR THE
WILDFIRE. THE SHEAR AND DYNAMICS DO NOT SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRONG
CONVECTION...BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SEE SOME PULSE STORMS
NEARING SVR. THE WINDEX VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG WIND IS ABOVE 50
AND FREEZING LEVELS THANKS TO THE UPPER LVL TROF REMAIN LOW AROUND
11K FT. AIR COLUMN IS STILL DRY FROM THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...AND
THOUGH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TODAY DONT ANTICIPATE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
HEAVY RAIN. IN FACT...DRY SOUNDING COULD BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTOR FOR CONVECTION AT FAR INLAND LOCATIONS. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING
ANOTHER FEW DEG FROM YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL KICK IN SATURDAY WITH UPPER
TROF SETTLING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT CENTERS MOVE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN
POPS SUNDAY WITH BETTER H9-H8 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...MORE
INSTABILITY WITH LIS AROUND -4 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING
TO ABOUT 1.8 INCHES. POPS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT
RANGE MOST AREAS. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY AND UP TO ANOTHER 3 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH AXIS OF UPPER TROUGH STILL TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...WILL
MAINTAIN POPS IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF POPS MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY TROF AXIS IS SWINGING
OFFSHORE BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. H5
HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AGAIN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONT VFR TODAY. SOME ISOLD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN BUT WITH
LIMITED CVRG WILL ONLY KEEP CB REMARK IN TAFS.

CONT MAINLY VFR INTO SAT WITH ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION POSS. LATER SAT
THROUGH SUN EXPECT BETTER CVRG OF SHRA AND TSRA WITH ASSOC CHC OF
REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS AS FRONT APPROACHES. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
TO THE CST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT DISSIPATES WITH STILL SMALL CHC OF
SOME CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG THE CST WILL BECOME S/SW THIS
AFTN AS HIGH PRES BECOMING DOMINANT FEATURE OFFSHR. SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN AOB 15 KTS WITH 2 TO 3 FT SEAS.

MODELS IN GOOD CONSENSUS WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH SAT.
MODELS STILL DONT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON STRENGTH OF WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS LATER THIS WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE NAM HAS BACKED OFF SOME AND NO LONGER ADVERTISES SCA CONDITIONS
WHILE THE GFS HAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR SCA WINDS EARLY SUN AND
AGAIN SUN LIGHT. WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
KEEPING STRONGEST WINDS SUN AND SUN NIGHT AT AROUND 15-20 KT.
FOLLOWED THE WAVE WATCH CLOSELY FOR SEAS EXCEPT FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT
WHERE I UNDERCUT A COUPLE FEET AS AM NOT GOING AS STRONG AS THE GFS
WITH WINDS ATTM. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE AREA MON AND TUE BRINGING
LIGHTER WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
158 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2008

NCZ092>095-098-201845-
JONES-PAMLICO-CRAVEN-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
158 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ONSLOW...CARTERET...CRAVEN...
PAMLICO AND JONES COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

AT 158 PM EDT...THERE WAS A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM MAYSVILLE
TO BOGUE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NEAR HAVELOCK AT 225 PM EDT...MOREHEAD CITY AT 240 PM EDT. OTHER
LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED BY THE STORMS INCLUDE BEAUFORT.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. MOST LIGHTNING FATALITIES AND INJURIES OCCUR IN OPEN AREAS OR
UNDER TREES. IF OUTDOORS...SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING OR CAR.
DO NOT TAKE SHELTER IN SMALL SHEDS...UNDER ISOLATED TREEES...OR IN
CONVERTIBLE AUTOMOBILES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

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