Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

000 
WWUS82 KMHX 020925
RFWMHX

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
425 AM EST WED JAN 2 2008

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-022100-
/O.EXT.KMHX.FW.W.0001.080102T1400Z-080102T2200Z/
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
425 AM EST WED JAN 2 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
EST THIS AFTERNOON...

STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM
THE WEST WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRES ACROSS THE AREA.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE THE WILDFIRE
GROWTH POTENTIAL. BECAUSE OF THE DRY CONDITIONS...NO OUTSIDE
BURNING OF ANY TYPE SHOULD BE ATTEMPTED. IF YOU SEE A BRUSH OR
GRASS FIRE IN YOUR AREA...REPORT IT TO THE LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT
IMMEDIATELY.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1039 AM EST TUE JAN 1 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NE FROM THE NC COAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THE COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER TO BE MORE
OPTIMISTIC COAST AS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUDS NOW WELL
OFFSHORE. OTHER CHANGE WAS TO BUMP UP TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY COAST AS HIGHS ALREADY NEAR OR AT FORECAST HIGHS
AND BEST CAA DELAYED UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AIR OVERTAKES THE FCST AREA TNGT ON NW WINDS. A BLUSTERY
NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE U20S/L30S INLAND AND
M/U30S ALONG THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S BY SUNRISE WED. STEEPENING LOW-MID LVL
LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE DEEP MID LVL TROF ON WED SUGGS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGG PCPN WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW LVLS
SO NO FCST MENTION ATTM. HIGHS WED ONLY REACHING L40S FOR MOST
WITH WIND CHILLS REMAINING IN THE U20S/L30S.

DRY NW FLOW REGIME CONTS THRU THU WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR KEEPING THE WELL BLO NORML TEMPS IN PLACE WED NIGHT INTO THU.
LOWS INLAND WED NIGHT L-M20S WITH SOME UPPER TEENS PSBL IN THE
NORMALLY COLD SPOTS WITH LOWS ALONG THE COAST MAINLY U20S/L30S.
HIGHS THU ONLY REACHING U30S/L40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SLOW TEMPERATURE MODERATION BEGINS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH BACKING
UPPER FLOW AND EVENTUAL RETURN FLOW AS THE COLD HIGH PRES SYSTEM
FINALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE. STILL QUITE COLD THU NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FM THE L-M20S INLAND M-U30S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS FRI
RECOVERING ONLY INTO THE M-U40S. TEMPS RETURN TO AT OR ABV NORML
LEVELS DURING THE WEEKEND ON RETURN FLOW. MODELS HINTING AT
INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCD WEAK CSTL TROF DEVELOPMENT ON SAT BUT
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WRT TO DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND TIMING TO
INCREASE POPS ATTM. BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS OVR THE REGION SUGGS
RETURN TO WELL ABV NORM TEMPS FOR DAYS 6/7 (SUN/MON).

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONTINUE OVER THE TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING AS COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE AND
STRONG RIDGING BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FROM THE W/SW.
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH W
TO NW SFC WINDS INCREASING FURTHER. HIGHEST WIND GUSTS NOT
EXPECTED TO GET MUCH ABOVE 20 KT.

VFR TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THRU SAT AS COLD HIGH PRES PREVAILS WITH GUSTY
NW SFC WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN ON WED.

&&

.MARINE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING TO SHOW TRENDS IN WIND
DIRECTION...WHICH IS NOW MOSTLY W ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WEAK
LOW OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL GET ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER SCALE
SYSTEM MOVING E THROUGH THE NE STATES THRU THIS AFTN. STRONG SFC
RIDGING WILL MEANWHILE BUILD IN FROM THE W/SW. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO SCA THRESHOLD ALL WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTN AS
THIS PATTERN EVOLVES. SEAS WILL BE LARGEST OFFSHORE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW DVLPG. WILL LIKELY NEED TO UPGRADE AT LEAST CENTRAL
WATERS TO GALES TOMORROW AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN GRADIENT LOOKS
STRONGEST ACROSS THE AREA. WILL REEVALUATE WITH 12Z GUIDANCE FOR
AFTN PACKAGE.

STRONG CAA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THU AS 1040
MB SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST FROM THE TENN VALLEY. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN SFC HIGH TO THE WEST AND DEPARTING DEEP LOW PRES OVER NEW
ENGLAND COUPLED WITH THE STRONG CAA WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF STRONG NW FLOW OVER THE AREA. HAVE MAINTAINED SCA OVER
ALL WATERS THROUGH THU WITH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS HOLDING ON
A BIT LONGER INTO EARLY FRI AS SEAS TAKE BIT LONGER TO SUBSIDE.

STRONGEST WINDS WILL EXIST WED INTO EARLY THU AND LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS JUST YET AND
LET LATER SHIFTS LOOK AT ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE LATER TODAY. FOLLOWED
VERY CLOSE TO WW3 GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS 6 TO 9 FT SEAS OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA (HIGHEST EASTERN PORTIONS) DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS
RETURN FRI INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS CAA DIMINISHES AND PRES
GRADIENT RELAXES WITH SFC RIDGE IN PLACE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...MW/JW
MARINE...MW/JW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
450 AM EST TUE JAN 1 2008

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-021000-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
450 AM EST TUE JAN 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.