High Surf Advisory 3, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
959 PM EST THU MAR 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING IN FROM THE N WILL MOVE E OVERNIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST
STATES. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE FRI...ACROSS WESTERN NC FRI
NIGHT...THEN N OF THE AREA ON SAT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE SE FRI...THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM THE W
SAT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN LA...WHICH IS
FORECASTED TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MS/AL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA. FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND UPDATED ZFP TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL
CAUSE MYRIAD CONCERNS FOR ERN NC...MAINLY FRI AFTN THROUGH SAT
AFTN. WDPSRD PCPN EXPECTED DURING PERIOD WITH 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE
MOST AREAS. NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING THREAT AT THE MOMENT.
SVR WX THREAT FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT WITH WARM SECTOR...DEVELOPING
LOW TRACKING TO W AND ATTENDANT STRONG WIND FIELDS. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER HIGH SHEAR/MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND CAPE EVENT...BUT ANY
STORMS WITH MODERATE DEVELOPMENT COULD ROTATE AND/OR PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS. WILL LIKELY NEED WIND ADVISORIES ALONG COAST LATE
FRI NIGHT AND SAT AND MAY NEED FOR ALL ZONES SAT WITH STRONG POST-
FRONTAL WINDS.

TEMPS ALWAYS TRICKY WITH COASTAL FRONTS BUT MODELS AGREE ON FRONT
PUSHING WELL INLAND BY LATE FRI AFTN...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO
60S. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT LACK OF WEDGING. STEADY OR
RISING TEMPS FRI NIGHT...THEN SOME COOLING WITH CAA BEHIND FRONT SAT
AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES DOMINATES EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ONLY A WEAK DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECTED EARLY WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SAT NIGHT THROUGH
TUE...THEN NEAR NORMAL WED-THU.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND LIFTING N OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOP WITH A LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WILL SEE A FEW AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY
MORNING.

A SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. PROLONGED MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT. IMPROVING WEATHER AND A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
DRIER AIR INVADES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...
YET ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT IN S TO SW FLOW EAST
OF THE STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT ON ITS WAY INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PASS ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF GALE
CONDITIONS BOTH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION. RAISED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS GIVEN STRONG CONFIDENCE IN
INCREASEING WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY TURNING WEST TO NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY WE COULD SEE SOME MINOR PAMLICO SOUNDSIDE FLOODING ALONG
THE OUTER BANKS FROM HATTERAS NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY. CURRENTLY
EXPECT IT TO BE LIMITED TO THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE.  AT THIS TIME IT
DOES NOT WARRANT A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH...BUT WILL CLOSELY EXAMINE
THE POTENTIAL ON NEXT MODEL RUNS. WILL ALSO LIKELY NEED HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH FACING BEACHES.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM EST FRIDAY TO 3 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ130.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/CLQ
SHORT TERM...JBM/CLQ
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...RSB/BTC
MARINE...RSB/BTC