Gale Warning 18, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
833 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT
AND MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCD WITH TIGHTENING
BAROCLINICITY ACRS EASTERN NC. A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER PCPN
LIKELY AS PRECIP WATERS INCREASE OVRNGT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ONE HALF INCH TO AN INCH PSBL.

UPDATED FCST TO LOWER OVRNGT MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGS BASED ON
CURRENT OB AND MOS TRENDS. LTL CHG NEEDED OTHERWISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MAY SEE LTL LUL IN PCPN ACTVTY SAT AM BTWN UPR LVL WVS. AS SFC WV
MVS ALNG FRNT AND DECENT UPR LVL ENERGY APPCHS FRM THE W ON SAT AFTN
WL SEE RESURGENCE OF ACTVTY. WRAP ARND MSTR WL HELP ENHANCE THIS AS
FRNT STRTS TO MV AWAY FRM THE AREA. UPR HGTS FALLG SO CUD SEE SUM
TSTMS SAT AFTN IN ERN SXNS. CAPE VALUES RMN LO AS DO LI/S...HWVR WI
COOLR 5H TEMPS WL MNTN ISOLD THNDR. INSTBLTY SPRNKLS SHUD CONT LT
SAT NGT INTO SUN AS UPR LO SWINGS THRU NC. GFS ACTUALLY CARRYING
FAIRLY HVY AMTS SAT NGT. WONT HIT IT AS HARD AS GFS. PWS WL BE OVR
1.5 INCH SAT. TEMPS WL BE ABT 10 DEGREES COOLR ON SAT AS TDY WI
INCRSD CLD CVR...PCPN...AND LWR HGTS. WL SEE SUM WRMG ON SUN AS SUN
STRTS TO POKE THRU THE CLD CVR. UPR LVL AND SFC RDG WL BLD BACK OVR
AREA MON WI HI TEMPS RETURNG TO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...WHICH WILL COOL
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH AND DRY EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH
GENERALLY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER
40S INLAND TO LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR ACRS THE AREA THIS EVE BUT CONDS SHUD BE LOWERING TO
IFR/LIFR AS PCPN BECOMES STEADIER OVRNGT. CIGS WILL ONLY VERY
SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM IFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SAT AS LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT. EXPECT VFR CONDS SUN THROUGH
TUE. A WEAK AND DRY FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS AREA LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONT STALLED JUST S OF AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. NLY WINDS WILL BE
15-20 KT...STRONGEST ACROSS THE NRN WATERS. WILL CONT SCA FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS N OF CAPE HAT FOR 4-6 FOOT SEAS...OTRW SCA CONDS
EXPECTED TO START FOR THE RMNDR CSTL WATERS SAT MORN CONTG FOR THE
SOUNDS THRU SUN EVE AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS THRU MON NGT.

A STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES TONIGHT AND SAT
STRONG LOW PRESSURE DVLPG ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFFSHORE. MODELS CONT
TO SHOW NLY WINDS TO SCA CRITERIA N OF HATTERAS EARLY SAT MORNING
STRENGTHENING TO SCA CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY MID DAY
SAT. WENT WITH SREF ENSEMBLE KEEPING WINDS BLO GALE CONDS 25 TO 30
KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF A GALE WARNING FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN. SEAS BUILD
TO 10-12 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL
OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT AS THE
LOW PULLS WELL E OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUN NIGHT BUT SEAS
EXPECTED TO RMN AT SCA LEVELS THRU MON NGT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ130-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR AMZ154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR AMZ158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG/BTC
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JAC/BTC
MARINE...JAC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
501 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-098-182115-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-ONSLOW-
501 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ095-103-104-182115-
CARTERET-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
501 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY FOR BEACHES
NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THE THREAT FOR HIGH RIP CURRENTS NORTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.