Coastal Flood Statement 27, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
825 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE A STALLED FRONT LINGERS
OFFSHORE. AN UN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SE ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT THEN JUST OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH TUE EVENING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST ON WED
WITH A COASTAL FRONT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA WED THROUGH
FRI.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF MID AND HIGH LVL CLDS IS SLOWLY SHIFTING E THIS EVENING.
LOOKS LIKE INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN MCLR WITH POSS A BIT OF SC
DEVELOPING LATER AS LOW LVLS MOISTEN. ALONG THE CST WILL CONT TO SEE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS SKIRT BY AND MAY ALSO SEE ST OR SC DVLP LATER AS NE
FLOW INCREASES. OVERALL THINK PC WORDING INLAND TO PC/MCDY IMD CST
WILL BE OK. AS STRONG HIGH BUILDS TO THE N AND LOW PRES DEVELOPS TO
THE S GRDNT WILL CONT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHLD KEEP
WINDS UP ESPCLY CST. OVER INLAND AREAS THINK DECREASING DEWPTS PLUS
N/NE BRZ WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING. NO CHG TO LOWS WITH 60 TO
65 INLAND AND UPR 60S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO A COASTAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE ECMWF/NAM
SOLUTION AS THE GFS IS TOO WEAK WITH THE SFC LOW FORMING OFF THE
GA COAST AND IS TOO STRONG WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH
FROM THE CARIBBEAN. PRES GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUE BETWEEN SFC RIDGING DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC AND
THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW TO THE SE. WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND COUNTIES BORDERING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUND FROM TUE EVENING THROUGH WED EVENING. THE NAM
IS WORRISOME AS IT DEVELOPS 40-50 KT SUSTAINED NE WINDS OVER THE
WATCH AREA GIVEN ITS MUCH DEEPER SFC LOW COMPARED TO THE ECMWF.
GIVEN THE NAMS HISTORY OF OVER DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL LOWS WE
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION. EVEN SO IT APPEARS
THAT A PERIOD OF VERY STRONG NE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING
LATE TUE CONTINUING THROUGH WED WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY WED. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...PRECIP WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE BEGINNING LATE WED AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SFC LOW TO THE SOUTH STRENGTHENS AND
COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE WE COULD SEE 3
TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHILE WESTERN SECTIONS COULD SEE 1 TO 3
INCHES. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE LOW/MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIKELY POPS CONTINUE FRI WITH LOW PRES OVER THE SE STATES. THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
PRECIP ON A DECREASING TREND SAT/SAT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
BELOW NORMAL ON FRI WITH A MODERATING TREND AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY A FEW THIN HIGH CLDS
SKIRTING BY. AT THIS POINT THINK LOW LVL FLOW WILL HAVE ENOUGH OF A
NRLY COMPONENT TO KEEP ANY ST THAT DEVELOPS LATER MAINLY TO THE E OF
TAF SITES. GRDNT WILL CONT TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHLD KEEP
ENOUGH OF A BRZ GOING TO KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING INLAND. ON TUE MAY
HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND AS NE FLOW CONTS TO INCREASE...THINK ALL
SITES WILL SEE WIND GUSTS AOA 25 KTS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING ON.

DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS BEGINNING TUE NIGHT AS SFC LOW DEEPENS
OFF THE SE COAST. WINDS WILL BE STRENGTHENING SIGNIFICANTLY LEADING
TO LIKLIHOOD OF LLWS ESP ON WED. PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOWERED
CIGS/VSBYS ALSO LIKELY FROM MIDWEEK ON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ALONG THE CST AS STRONG HIGH BUILDS
TO THE N...ALSO SEE SOME WEAK PRES FALLS TO THE SE AS LOW PRES
DEVELOPS. RISING PRES TO THE N AND DECREASING PRES TO THE S WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING N/NE WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. GALE
HEADLINES ARE ALREADY UP ALL WTRS AND SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS POINT. SINCE GALE WARNING IS SET TO
START WITHIN 12 HRS HAVE DROPPED THE SCA HEADLINE. MAY INCREASE INIT
CONDITIONS SOME ZONES OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FCST WITH VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

PREV DISC...THE MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF AMPING UP WINDS FASTER
ON TUESDAY SUCH THAT GALE FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE OCCURRING PRIOR TO
00Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS TILL MUCH DISAGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE WITH
ECMWF/NAM TRACK FORECAST USED FOR THIS FORECAST. INITIAL THOUGHTS
WERE THAT THE CANADIAN/UK MET/NAM SOLUTIONS WERE TOO STRONG WITH
SUSTAINED 50 KT WINDS WEDNESDAY SO WE OPTED TO BLEND WITH THE GFS
AND WILL USE 30-40 KT WINDS FOR THIS PACKAGE. WILDCARD IN THIS
FORECAST IS WHAT EFFECT WILL INTERACTION WITH A POSSIBLE TROPICAL
SYSTEM HAVE ON THE EXTRATROPICAL COASTAL LOW INTENSITY AND TRACK.
THE GFS ABSORBS THE COASTAL LOW INTO THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS KEEP THE COASTAL LOW DISTINCT AND RETROGRADE IT INTO
SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY LARGE SEAS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST REACHING A PEAK OF 14 TO 16 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LARGE SEAS WILL LEAD TO ROUGH SURF
ALONG THE EAST FACING BEACHES NORTH OF LOOKOUT WITH BREAKERS OF 8
FEET OR HIGHER EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING ON
WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS...DANGEROUS SURF AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
HIGH WATER LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND INCLUDING THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE NEUSE RIVER EAST OF HAVELOCK. WATER LEVELS OF
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW...HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...AND ROUGH
SURF WILL LEAD TO THE THREAT FOR MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH
EROSION...COASTAL FLOODING...AND OCEAN OVER WASH NORTH OF HATTERAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.

THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS PROBLEMATIC DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST
AND IS LOW CONFIDENCE. HAVE FOLLOWED AN HPC SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS SCA
CONDITIONS GOING INTO FRIDAY.

.RIP CURRENTS...EXPECT A HIGH THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS NORTH OF
LOOKOUT TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ095-
     103-104.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ103-104.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR NCZ046-047-081-093>095.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ103.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ093>095.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JW
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...RF/JME
MARINE...RF/JME

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
411 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2008

NCZ029-044>046-079-080-090>092-098-241000-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-GREENE-BEAUFORT-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-
ONSLOW-
411 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ103-241000-
OUTER BANKS DARE-
411 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2008

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ104-241000-
OUTER BANKS HYDE-
411 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2008

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ095-241000-
CARTERET-
411 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2008

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ047-081-241000-
MAINLAND DARE-MAINLAND HYDE-
411 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ093-094-241000-
CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
411 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2008

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.