Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Medford, OR

000
WWUS86 KMFR 170223
RFWMFR

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
723 PM PDT SAT AUG 16 2008

ORZ617-170330-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-080817T0200Z/
UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-
723 PM PDT SAT AUG 16 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR HAINES 6 OVER A WILDFIRE IN ZONE 617 HAS
EXPIRED...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR HAINES 6 OVER A
WILDFIRE IN ZONE 617.

WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS...THE HAINES INDEX HAS
FALLEN BELOW 6 AND THE WARNING FOR HAINES 6 OVER THE WILDFIRE IN
ZONE 617 HAS ENDED.

$$

MTS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
311 AM PDT SAT AUG 16 2008

.DISCUSSION...THE TWO MAIN TOPICS OF INTEREST ARE THE RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND NAM MODELS SEEM IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN MUCH
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG TERM THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO.

ALTOCUMULUS DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND THERE WERE A FEW RETURNS OF VIRGA ON THE RADAR. THE MID LEVEL
CAPPING INVERSION WILL STILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL
BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY AND WHILE MOISTURE IS INCREASING IT IS
STILL GENERALLY ABOVE 12K-15K FEET. THUS...I HAVE CONTINUED THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
NONE EXPECTED BEFORE 3 PM. THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE FROM WESTERN
SISKIYOU NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CASCADES TO NORTHERN KLAMATH
COUNTY. ANY STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...ABOUT 20 KT...BUT THE
LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL STILL BE DRY THUS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
RAINFALL WITH ANY STORMS.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE PUSHES
FARTHER EAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY SUNDAY
BUT ANY STORMS WILL BE FASTER MOVING...ABOUT 40 KT.
THUS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
INLAND AREA BUT RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD STILL BE
LIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN A RATHER ABRUPT AND PRONOUNCED CHANGE
BEGINNING MONDAY. THE REGION OF INSTABILITY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST EARLY IN THE DAY WITH COOLER MARINE AIR BEHIND A DRY COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS AND INLAND HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY.

HOWEVER...THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IN THE LONG RANGE IS A SECOND
COLD FRONT. A FEW LIGHT COASTAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS AN ACTUAL HONEST
TO GOODNESS RISK OF STRATIFORM RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RISK IS GREATER THE FARTHER ONE GOES TO THE
NORTH AND WEST BUT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE RAIN MAY FALL EAST OF THE CASCADES AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THIS PATTERN WOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...INDICATING
SLIGHT WARMING AND DRYING THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE
CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES WITH PERHAPS A FEW MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS.
BOTH MODELS MOVE OUT THE TROUGH BY FRIDAY WITH AN OUTLOOK FOR
A STABLE ATMOSPHERE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING...IMPROVING TO MVFR WITH LOCAL VFR IN THE AFTERNOON THEN
LOW STRATUS RETURNING IN THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS INLAND WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 3 PM IN THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM
     PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PZZ356-PZZ376.

DW