Wind Advisory 6, NWS Miami, FL

000 
WWUS72 KMFL 240004
NPWMFL

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
804 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2008

...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...


FLZ168-172-173-240115-
/O.EXP.KMFL.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-081024T0000Z/
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JUPITER...WEST PALM BEACH...
BOCA RATON...POMPANO BEACH...FORT LAUDERDALE...
FORT LAUDERDALE BEACH...HOLLYWOOD BEACH...AVENTURA...
MIAMI BEACH...MIAMI SHORES...DOWNTOWN MIAMI...CUTLER BAY...
HOMESTEAD BAYFRONT PARK
804 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2008

...WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF PALM
BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES INDICATE THAT THE
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO BELOW 25 MPH. THEREFORE, THE
WIND ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. NEVERTHELESS...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
700 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2008

.AVIATION...EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING...AND WILL PREVAIL AT 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 25
KT THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT SCT025
OVC040. RADAR TRENDS AT THIS WRITING SHOW JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS AROUND
WITH NO DEFINITIVE AREAS TO TIME. WE HAVE HIGH POPS TODAY...AND SO
STRUGGLED WITH WHAT TO DO IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TODAY/TONIGHT. SINCE THIS IS IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME...DECIDED TO LEAVE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAFS AND WE WILL AMEND BASED ON WX
TRENDS. WOULD RATHER DO THIS THAN BLANKET THE WHOLE DAY/NIGHT WITH
BAD CONDITIONS...WHEN IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THOSE CONDITIONS WOULD NOT
PREVAIL FOR LONG DURATION. ALSO...BELIEVE STORM CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. /DG

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND ITS OUTER EDGE
IS DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION CONTINUING TO BRING COPIOUS MOISTURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE
LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH DRIER AIR TRYING TO MOVE SOUTH BACK
ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO
MINIMIZE THE DAY TIME HEATING FROM INITIATING CONVECTION...BUT LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND OVER RUNNING ALONG THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE THE MECHANISMS FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE TWO INCHES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND AND SHEAR
PROFILE ARE FORECAST TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MUCH OF
THIS POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW IN THE
CENTRAL GULF AND HOW IT AFFECTS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE
20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE OVER THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND JUST OVER 20 KNOTS OVER THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY. GULF STREAM SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO NEAR 7 TO 8 FEET TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND STARTING TO
DIMINISH ON LATER ON FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  75  84  74 / 80 80 70 50
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  75  83  76 / 80 70 60 50
MIAMI            81  76  83  76 / 80 70 60 50
NAPLES           82  70  83  74 / 80 70 60 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ650-AMZ651-
     AMZ670-AMZ671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

LONG TERM...60/BD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...57/DG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
945 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2008

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-240000-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
945 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2008

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: EAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL LEAD TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES OF PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY, SO SWIMMING IS
STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS ACROSS ALL OF
THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

WIND: LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE MARINE
AREAS AND TO 40 MPH OVER THE LAND AREAS.

FLOODING: LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS TO FOUR INCHES IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH COULD
LEAD TO MINOR STREET FLOODING OR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

WAVES: SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY EARLY.

A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN
IMPACTS.

GULF STREAM SEAS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 6 FEET SATURDAY MORNING
AND REBUILD TO AROUND 7 FEET MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO NORTH
WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATER ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.