Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
251 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...THIS FCST PACKAGE IS ALMOST A WAIT AND SEE VARIETY
AS T.S. FAY MOVES NORTH OF LAKE OKEE THIS EVENING AND THEN MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER AS TO THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS
AND NAM HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS BUT SINCE THE TRACK COMPLETELY
DEPENDS ON WHETHER IT WILL BE OVER WATER OR LAND, YOU COULD ARGUE
THEY HAVE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS TAKES IT
BACK TO THE WEST INTO THE NE GOFMEX WHILE THE NAM DRIFTS IT NORTH
AND THEN MOVES IT BACK WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AT ANY
RATE, ALL MODELS AGREE THAT AS THE CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES GETS KICKED OUT TO THE NE, ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL BUILD NORTH OF FAY AND THE STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME NIL. SO
FAY IS QUITE LIKELY TO LINGER AROUND FOR AWHILE NORTH OF OUR CWA
WHICH PUTS S FLA IN SW TO W FLOW THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. SO
WITH THIS KIND OF SET UP, THE E CST METRO AREA WILL BE QUITE
TOASTY AND UNSETTLED THIS WEEK. ALTHOUGH WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A
TROPICAL STORM IN THE VICINITY, ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST
WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES THROUGH
THE WEEK. CONCERNING THE TOASTY CONDITIONS, GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS
MAX TEMPS ALONG THE E CST IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND SO HAVE GONE
ABOVE THIS BY A DEGREE OR TWO. HOWEVER, IF ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS
WITH THE SW FLOW PRIOR TO CONVECTION DEVELOPING, TEMPS COULD
EASILY GET INTO THE LOWER 90S OR EVEN MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL CONTINUE FORECAST OF PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS SQUALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH
FLORIDA TERMINALS. WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 30-40 KNOTS IN
SQUALLS AS THEY PASS OVER THE TERMINALS...WITH PREVAILING
DIRECTION VARYING FROM SSW ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TO WNW ALONG
THE GULF COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE VCTS/CB AND ONLY
SLOWLY RAISE CIGS BY 20/18Z...AS BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS FAY CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHWARD.
T.S. WARNING WAS CANCELED EARLIER FOR THE GULF WATERS AND
REPLACED WITH SCA TO ACCOUNT FOR WINDS REMAINING ABOVE 20 KNOTS
BEFORE DECREASING LATER TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOWER TO
IMPROVE ELSEWHERE AS FAY SLOWS ITS FORWARD SPEED AND POSSIBLY
STALLS OFF THE E CENTRAL PENINSULA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  90  73  89 / 70 70 40 60
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  90  74  90 / 60 70 40 60
MIAMI            75  90  75  91 / 60 60 30 50
NAPLES           78  87  80  87 / 40 50 30 50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067-
     FLZ068-FLZ069-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-FLZ075-
     FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173-FLZ174.

     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-
     FLZ074.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173.

     TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 4 PM ALL SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT GULF WATERS.

AM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AMZ610-AMZ630-AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-
     AMZ671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-
     GMZ657-GMZ676.

&&

LONG TERM...30/KOB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...70/DD

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>