Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
244 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPING AS SCHEDULED OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN AREAS, WITH EAST COAST METRO AREAS TEMPORARILY IN THE
CLEAR AS FAR AS PRECIP IS CONCERNED. SYNOPTIC SITUATION UNFOLDING
PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED WITH TROPICAL WAVE NOW OVER WESTERN
BAHAMAS AND PASSING THROUGH AREA TONIGHT. SMALL MID/UPPER LOW OVER
EXTREME SE GULF PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER S FLORIDA
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING OVER
INTERIOR AND WESTERN AREAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER ATLC WATERS AROUND SUNDOWN AND MAKE
THEIR WAY ONSHORE THE EAST COAST TONIGHT.

DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO AREA BEHIND THE WAVE ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS AND NAM MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
TIMING OF THE DRIER AIR, WITH GFS BRINGING IT IN LATE MORNING AND
THE NAM HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS OBVIOUSLY HAS
IMPLICATIONS ON THE AMOUNT/COVERAGE OF PRECIP TUESDAY. THE GFS
APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER OVERALL HANDLE ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT
OF THE DRY AIR ADVANCING WESTWARD, THEREFORE STAYED CLOSER TO GFS
MOS POPS WHICH LINED UP PRETTY WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS
MEANS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL STILL SEE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUESDAY,
BUT ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE FAIRLY RAPIDLY FROM SE TO NW AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. AFTER TUESDAY, ITS PRETTY MUCH A BELOW CLIMO FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS FAR AS POPS GO , WITH NO MORE THAN
30 PERCENT INTERIOR AND WEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND 20 PERCENT
EASTERN AREAS AS DEEP EASTERLY FLOW SETS IN FROM HIGH PRESSURE
AT SFC AND ALOFT. SKIES WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY MILKY OVER ALL OF
SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LAYER OF SUSPENDED SAHARAN
DUST MOVES OVERHEAD.

FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS
SOME AS MODELS FORECAST EASTERN U.S. TROUGH TO CUT OFF A WEAK MID
LEVEL LOW EAST OF FLORIDA IN THE VICINITY OF THE NW BAHAMAS.
DECREASED STABILITY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN POPS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY RETURNING TO AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN E TO SE WINDS EXPECTED AS THE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
STILL DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN MUCH ABOVE 15 KNOTS FOR A LONG
PERIOD OF TIME, PRECLUDING ANY HEADLINES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
WAVEWATCH MODEL IS SHOWING LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM DISTANT
HURRICANE BERTHA POSSIBLY IMPACTING NORTHERN ATLC WATERS BY
FRIDAY. OVERALL EFFECT ON SEAS WOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL AS SWELL
HEIGHTS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2 FEET. WILL LET NEXT FORECAST
CYCLE EVALUATE THE LATEST TRACK AND FORECAST OF BERTHA BEFORE
INCLUDING SWELL IN THE MARINE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS AS MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOWEST
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT...WITH ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT MIXING TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 127 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2008/

AVIATION...EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS PUSHED WELL INLAND AND ANY
TSRA WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE E CST TERMINALS. IT IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION HOWEVER FOR SOME TSRA TO FORM OVER THE ATLANTIC
BUT THESE WILL ONLY BE ISOLD AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF TAFS AT
THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED AS DEPICTED BY
EARLIER MODEL RUNS AND IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT A W CST SEA BREEZE
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR SOME TSRA DEVELOPMENT
DOES EXIST TO PLACE VCTS IN THE KAPF TAF UNTIL AROUND 00Z. LESS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

30/KOB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  89  78  89 / 50 40 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  89  81  89 / 50 30 20 20
MIAMI            79  89  80  90 / 50 30 20 20
NAPLES           74  92  75  93 / 50 50 10 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

MOLLEDA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
416 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2008

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-072315-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
415 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2008

...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...
...SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE COASTAL ATLANTIC...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
40 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS TODAY ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS, AND MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

WIND: WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

FLOODING: HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
TODAY AND IF TRAINING DOES OCCUR MINOR FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED
AREAS MAY OCCUR.

RIP CURRENTS: EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CREATE A SIGHT
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WESTERN INTERIOR PORTION OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA EACH
DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE, MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
449 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2008

FLZ070-072130-
INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL-
449 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY...

AT 448 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MILE MARKER 90 ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 22 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT...

SUNNILAND...
INTERSECTION I-75 AND EVERGLADES BLVD...
AVE MARIA...
GOLDEN GATE ESTATES...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF THESE ARE POSSIBLE.
LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES
AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH CAN
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2645 8142 2631 8127 2625 8127 2625 8119
      2621 8115 2603 8125 2619 8171
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 132DEG 19KT 2619 8133

BAXTER