Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1116 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

.UPDATE...
HAVE ALREADY UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT HIGHER POPS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THIS IS THE REGION
WHERE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED...
NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY. ALSO INCLUDED MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL
HAIL/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...BASED ON EVENTS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.

OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED WINDS UPWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC
WATERS...BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...AND ADDED SCEC HEADLINE
TO THESE MARINE ZONES AS WELL AS BISCAYNE BAY. ALL UPDATED
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008/

MORNING AVIATION...
THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE THAT
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT AFP TAF SITE. THE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES TODAY...AND THUNDERSTORMS AT APF TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON. SO
WILL SHOW VCSH FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...AND VCTS FOR APF TAF
SITE BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z.

THE SKIES AND VIS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY FOR THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES AND APF TAF SITE. WILL AMEND THE APF TAF
SITE AS NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA.

AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008/

DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...RUC ANALYSIS AND THE RECENT
GUIDANCE INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA
PENINSULA. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
CONTINUES TO COME ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE GULF
AND OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A TROPICAL
WAVE SOUTH OF CUBA IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF.

RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MID LEVELS WILL BE DRY IN THE
SHORT TERM...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED CIRRUS PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE SOUTH FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND LACK OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH THE EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS FAVORING THE WESTERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS AND THE NAPLES AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PWATS
SHOULD BE AROUND 1.7 INCHES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO ISOLATED
AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN FAVORING THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL
THE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE...WITH 10 TO 15 KNOTS
ELSEWHERE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS WILL
BE NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH PERIODS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  90  77 / 50 30 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  79  90  80 / 40 20 20 10
MIAMI            91  79  91  78 / 40 20 20 10
NAPLES           91  74  93  75 / 50 20 30 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...54/BNB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
931 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-270200-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
931 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD BEACHES TODAY...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PALM BEACH BEACHES TODAY...
...SOME STRONG STORMS OVER INTERIOR AREAS TODAY...
...SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TODAY, EXCEPT NUMEROUS NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
BEACHES OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES TODAY, WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
ALONG THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH COUNTY TODAY WILL LEAD TO A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, A MEAN SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY.

SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR AREAS WHERE THE SEA BREEZES AND THE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD
CLASH, BUT ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS
TODAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING STRIKES,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL.

WIND: THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

HAIL: THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN COOL TODAY
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS TO
PRODUCE HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE TODAY WHERE THE SEA BREEZES AND LAKE
BREEZE COLLIDE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA.

FLOODING:THE MOVEMENT OF ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL BE
SLOW ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS, IN TURN,
COULD RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER IN POORLY DRAINED LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AND WEST COAST SECTIONS.
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH ALONG THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. THIS, IN TURN, WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAYBE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

BAXTER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
110 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

FLZ067-068-261745-
INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
110 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS EXTREME CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY...

AT 108 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF NORTH PALM BEACH GENERAL
AIRPORT.  THIS STORM WAS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT...

  STATE ROAD 706...
  RURAL NORTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

ALSO...THIS STORM IS DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2690 8019 2689 8033 2696 8040 2696 8019
TIME...MOT...LOC 1710Z 154DEG 2KT 2693 8028

BAXTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
134 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

FLZ066-070-261830-
HENDRY FL-INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL-
134 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLLIER AND CENTRAL
HENDRY COUNTIES...

AT 130 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTH OF HENDRY CORRECTIONAL I/A/P...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT...
  KERI...
  RURAL CENTRAL HENDRY COUNTY
  RURAL NORTHERN COLLIER COUNTY

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF THESE ARE POSSIBLE.
LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES
AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH CAN
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

ALSO...THIS STORM IS DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2661 8148 2670 8118 2642 8107 2633 8126
TIME...MOT...LOC 1734Z 157DEG 6KT 2644 8122

BAXTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
234 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

FLZ067-261900-
INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
234 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY...

AT 229 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
A THUNDERSTORM WAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 6 MILES NORTH OF LION COUNTRY
SAFARI...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT...

  RURAL NORTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF THESE ARE POSSIBLE.
LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES
AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH CAN
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 2667 8038 2684 8063 2696 8050 2696 8044
      2696 8043 2696 8037 2679 8024
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 135DEG 5KT 2679 8038

GREGORIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
240 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

FLZ069-070-075-261945-
MAINLAND MONROE FL-COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY FL-INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL-
240 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINLAND MONROE AND
SOUTHEAST COLLIER COUNTY...

AT 238 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OCHOPEE...MOVING NORTH AROUND 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT...

OCHOPEE...
CARNESTOWN...
COPELAND...
JEROME...
DEEP LAKE...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF THESE ARE POSSIBLE.
LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES
AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH CAN
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

ALSO...THIS STORM IS DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2608 8108 2573 8117 2576 8124 2578 8132
      2580 8134 2579 8135 2579 8136 2581 8136
      2581 8135 2582 8135 2583 8137 2607 8141
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 177DEG 12KT 2585 8126

BAXTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
249 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

FLZ066-067-070-071-261915-
HENDRY FL-INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL-
INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL-
249 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS RURAL NORTHWEST BROWARD
COUNTY...

AT 246 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF MICCOSUKEE SERVICE PLAZA...
MOVING NORTH AT 12 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT...

  RURAL NORTHWESTERN BROWARD COUNTY

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF THESE ARE POSSIBLE.
LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES
AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH CAN
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2638 8097 2646 8074 2618 8064 2615 8083
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 158DEG 11KT 2623 8077

GREGORIA