Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
224 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ON BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA
BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED. THE SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAVE HELPED KEEP IT AT BAY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. STORMS ON THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM GLADES TO CENTRAL
COLLIER COUNTIES CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SLOWLY NE. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MOVING INTO INTERIOR SOUTH FL SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTION
FILLING IN THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVING E BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THUS...EAST COAST
AREAS ESPECIALLY BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES MAY SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS LATER. IN ADDITION...A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
OFFSHORE TAMPA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF IS MOVING STEADILY SE AND
COULD REIGNITE CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING IF IT
HOLDS TOGETHER.

THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
GRADUALLY UP THE EAST COAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. AS THIS HAPPENS...EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
IN STRENGTH AND DEPTH THROUGH TUESDAY. TOMORROW APPEARS TO BE A
TRANSITION DAY WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW BUT STILL WEAK FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH ABOVE THAT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO WORK INLAND AND GIVE A FAIRLY EARLY START TO THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE AS WELL. GFS FCST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY WITH PWATS HOLDING AROUND 1.9 TO 2 INCHES...SO COULD BE
ANOTHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY TOMORROW WITH ACTIVITY INITIALLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE A LITTLE WAYS INLAND...THEN MIGRATING MORE
NORTHERLY TOWARDS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. WILL CARRY HIGHEST
POPS THERE AS A RESULT. 500MB TEMPS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLD
STRONG STORM OR TWO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WELL. AS THE EASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
SHIFT TOWARDS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO MOVE THE OPENING UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO SLOWLY WEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
INTO THE BAHAMAS/FL VICINITY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS OPENS UP A BREAK IN
THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND BRINGS IN MORE/DEEPER
MOISTURE WITH INCREASING PWATS ON A WEAK EASTERLY WIND SURGE.
CONVERGENCE ALSO INCREASES ALONG AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AS WELL. ALL
OF THESE FACTORS SUGGEST A VERY ACTIVE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER
POPS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY AS ITS PROGRESS SLOWS DOWN. THE 00Z/22
ECMWF IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT PASSES THE
UPPER LOW SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH...BUT THESE SMALL DIFFERENCE YIELD
THE SAME NET RESULT OF INCREASING MOISTURE/POPS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SREF MEAN POP GUIDANCE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT-NUMEROUS TSRA WILL IMPACT EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH PERIODS OF IFR-MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS PSBL ALONG WITH
SHIFTING WINDS ALONG NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. CONVECTION
SHOULD DIE DOWN DURING THE EVENING WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
AND CLEARING SKIES. KAPF WILL SEE MORE ISLD ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOME ISLD SHRA/TSRA MAY MOVE IN OFF THE GULF.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SFC HIGH BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION AND BROAD TROUGHING DEVELOPS
IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS TO NEAR 15 KTS
WITH SEAS 3 TO 4FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS THIS PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  88  77  88 / 20 50 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  89  79  89 / 20 40 20 30
MIAMI            77  89  78  89 / 20 30 20 30
NAPLES           75  91  74  92 / 20 40 20 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...STRASSBERG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...18/GR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1015 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-230200-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
1015 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY, FEW POSSIBLY STRONG OR
SEVERE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY HAZARD
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING STRIKES.

WIND: THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH.

HAIL: THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO PENNY
SIZED HAIL.

FLOODING: THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, LEADING TO PONDING OF WATER IN
POORLY DRAINED LOCATIONS.

VISIBILITY: A MIXTURE OF SMOKE AND FOG TO THE IMMEDIATE WEST OF
SMOLDERING WILDFIRES AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE MAY
RESULT IN VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO ONE MILE OR LESS LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD, WITH ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

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