Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
220 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2008

DISCUSSION...THE AXIS OF A PERSISTENT STRONG MID ATMOSPHERIC RIDGE
AT H7 WILL REMAIN ACROSS CUBA AND THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MOVE A LITTLE NORTH TO A KEYS LATITUDE ON FRIDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING ON SATURDAY. A MID-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE IN THE
WESTERLIES WILL DIG THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ON A WEAK
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH PUSH TO GET A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT BARELY THROUGH
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN
BETTER NEWS IS THAT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS (CLIMATOLOGY
POPS FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF MAY ARE AROUND 30-40 PERCENT EACH DAY)
AND THE HEAT SHOULD BE LESS WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVER.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS ARE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
MUCK FIRE AT THIS WRITING. WHILE IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PUT IT
COMPLETELY OUT, SINCE MUCK DOES SMOLDER UNDERGROUND, WILL NOT PLAN
A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT BUT WILL CHECK WITH AUTHORITIES
AFTER DARK TO SEE HOW MUCH RAINFALL WAS RECEIVED IN LAKEFRONT COMMUNITIES.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD INCLUDING THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SUNDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH CONTINUING
ABOVE CLIMO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALLIGATOR
ALLEY SOUTH, BUT DRYING OUT NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY. BACK TO A
SPRING AIR MASS WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MODERATING WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE ATLANTIC WATER TEMPERATURE IS CLOSE TO 80, SO EXPECT
ONSHORE MOVING MARINE LAYER SHOWERS ANYTIME BEGINNING MEMORIAL DAY.

EVEN FARTHER OUT, THE GFS IS HINTING AT A MUCH WETTER PERIOD OF
SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING THURSDAY BUT MUCH CAN HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN.

.AVIATION... A LIGHT SW FLOW PREVALING AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY.
SEABREEZE OVER THE EAST COAST TERMINALS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A SW
FLOW AFTER 00Z. VCSH ONLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z AT KPBI
DUE TO LAKE BREEZE. KAPF WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH UNTIL 23Z.

&&

RIVERA

.MARINE...EXCEPT FOR INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, LIGHT
WINDS AND ONSHORE AFTERNOON SEA/LAKE BREEZES MEAN REASONABLY GOOD
BOATING WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY AT TIMES, SEAS WILL BE BUILDING AND
MARINE CONDITIONS WORSENING SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
MEANS A BIT OF RELIEF FROM FIRE WEATHER ISSUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOPEFULLY ENOUGH RAIN WILL FALL IN THE RIGHT PLACES TO DAMPEN
EXISTING FIRES NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK.
WORSENING FIRE WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES AND HIGHER WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEGINNING MEMORIAL DAY BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE
RECORD BREAKING AS THEY HAVE BEEN EARLIER THIS WEEK.

.CLIMATE...THE MEDIAN DATE OF THE BEGINNING OF SOUTH FLORIDAS
WETTER SEASON IS MAY 20, BUT WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND, THE ACTUAL BEGINNING
MAY BE DELAYED INTO THE LAST WEEK OF MAY. IF THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
AS STRONG OR MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS EXPECTED, AN EARLIER START DATE
MAY BE DETERMINED IN HINDSIGHT. IT IS NOT UNUSUAL TO BE SEVERAL DAYS
PAST THE ACTUAL BEGINNING OF THE WETTER SEASON BEFORE WE SEE THAT IT
ACTUALLY DID BEGIN, POSSIBLY ON TIME.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  88  74  90 / 20 40 30 60
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  88  76  89 / 10 30 20 50
MIAMI            77  89  77  90 / 10 30 20 40
NAPLES           74  90  75  88 / 10 30 20 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...50/RLP
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...70/DD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1206 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2008

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-230415-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
1206 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2008

...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALL AREAS TODAY WITH GREATEST CHANCES NORTH...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR PORTION OF THE PENINSULA, IN
THE REGION SURROUNDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

WIND: THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRES IN SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE MAY CAUSE VISIBILITY PROBLEMS FROM TIME TO TIME
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH THE AREAS IMPACTED DEPENDING ON THE WIND
DIRECTION. HOWEVER, ALL AREAS MAY SEE PATCHY DENSE SMOKE AT NIGHT
AS THE SMOKE SETTLES TO THE GROUND AND EXPANDS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LAKE SHORE COMMUNITIES. SMOKE FROM THE FIRE
IN THE EVERGLADES OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
CAUSE SOME VISIBILITY PROBLEMS PRIMARILY AT NIGHT ACROSS INLAND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM DURING THIS PERIOD.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO 15 TO
20 MPH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GULF STREAM SEAS
MAY BUILD TO 7 TO 9 FEET THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

70/DD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
203 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2008

FLZ063-066-067-221830-
HENDRY FL-GLADES FL-INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
203 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN HENDRY AND SOUTHERN
GLADES COUNTIES...

AT 203 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LA BELLE TO 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF CLEWISTON...MOVING NORTH AT 9 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT...

LA BELLE...
LAKE HICPOCHEE...
MOORE HAVEN...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES...UP TO PEA SIZED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50
MPH...WHICH CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF THESE STORMS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES...ON THE ORDER OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR...CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW
LYING AREAS.

LAT...LON 2703 8094 2703 8099 2698 8107 2698 8108
      2692 8107 2693 8110 2689 8111 2683 8106
      2682 8095 2678 8094 2674 8086 2677 8074
      2673 8085 2665 8153 2698 8145 2704 8093
TIME...MOT...LOC 1800Z 197DEG 8KT 2675 8145 2681 8082

70/DD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
217 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2008

FLZ067-068-072-168-172-221845-
INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-
COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL-
217 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH
COUNTY...

AT 217 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOCA RATON...MOVING NORTH AT
23 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT...

BOCA WEST...
MORIKAMI PARK...
BOCA RATON EQUESTRIAN CENTER...
VILLAGES OF ORIOLE...
VILLAGE OF GOLF...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES...UP TO PEA SIZED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...
WHICH CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2643 8006 2639 8006 2629 8010 2634 8030
      2656 8022 2652 8005 2649 8005 2645 8005
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 195DEG 20KT 2640 8017

70/DD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
223 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2008

FLZ067-221845-
INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
223 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY...

AT 223 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKEELANTA...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 23 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT HIGHWAY 27 SOUTH OF OKEELANTA...AND OTHERWISE
REMAIN OVER RURAL CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY.

ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 5 MILES SOUTH
OF CANAL POINT.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FORM THESE STORMS WILL BE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTING STRIKES...UP TO PEA SIZED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40
TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW
AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING
UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2672 8060 2659 8045 2641 8066 2654 8080
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 226DEG 20KT 2654 8066

70/DD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
247 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2008

FLZ067-068-168-221915-
INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
247 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY...

AT 247 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OKEELANTA TO 11
MILES EAST OF OKEELANTA TO LOXAHATCHEE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE TO
BOCA RATON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 22 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT...

MORIKAMI PARK...
LOXAHATCHEE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE...
DELRAY BEACH...
SOUTH BAY...
ABERDEEN...
ATLANTIS...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF THESE ARE POSSIBLE.
LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES
AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH CAN
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2678 8002 2678 8005 2676 8003 2655 8003
      2634 8007 2651 8059 2654 8087 2670 8077
      2669 8074 2674 8074 2677 8072 2675 8071
      2676 8070 2680 8070 2687 8063 2696 8059
      2696 8007 2682 8002
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 214DEG 20KT 2660 8075 2659 8053
          2650 8027 2640 8010

70/DD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
320 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2008

FLZ067-068-168-221945-
INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
320 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY...

AT 320 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED NEAR NORTH PALM BEACH
GENERAL AIRPORT...AND MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT...

RIVIERA BEACH...
NORTH PALM BEACH GENERAL AIRPORT...
FAU NORTH CAMPUS...
JUPITER FARMS...
PHILO FARMS...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF THESE ARE POSSIBLE.
LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES
AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH CAN
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2678 8002 2678 8005 2676 8003 2648 8005
      2655 8049 2696 8038 2696 8015 2698 8014
      2698 8007 2686 8004 2686 8003 2684 8004
      2682 8002
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 202DEG 22KT 2679 8023

70/DD

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