Small Craft Advisory 18, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
553 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.UPDATE...TS FAY CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO COLLIER COUNTY THIS
MORNING AND ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED...
HOWEVER TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE STORM
EXITS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008/

DISCUSSION...TROPICAL STORM FAY MOVING ONTO THE COLLIER COUNTY
COAST. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO A LARGE PORTION OF TODAY WITH THE STORM, BUT
A DECREASE IN COVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED TO FAIRLY RAPIDLY OCCUR ONCE
THE CENTER PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST AS DRIER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE
SYSTEM. ALSO, WITH THE SYSTEM PASSING NORTH... HELICITIES WILL
DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY. FAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON
A GENERALLY NORTHERLY COURSE TODAY AND MOVER INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF FL WEDNESDAY, YET ONLY TO SLOW AND POSSIBLY MOVE ERRATICALLY OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. THIS MAKES
THE FORECAST VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR NOT ONLY S FL BUT FOR THE REST
OF THE STATE AS WELL. IN S FL, PENDING ON HOW FAST THE SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY WINDS MAY DECREASE SLOWER OR FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED AS
THE GRADIENT RELAXES, AND FOR THE POPS... KEPT WORDING NUMEROUS
INTO THURSDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA.

THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PORTRAYED SLIGHTLY
LOWER POPS AS HOPEFULLY FAY MOVES AWAY AND THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE
NUDGES IN, BUT CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED FORECAST IS ON THE LOWER SIDE.

MARINE...INCLEMENT MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FAY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF FLORIDA DURING
WEDNESDAY WITH A SLOWLY LOOSENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE
CYCLONE... HOWEVER HIGHER WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS TO AROUND 7 FEET INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGED IS
EXPECTED TO REBUILD INTO S FL WITH TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  74  90  74 / + 70 70 40
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  74  89  75 / + 60 70 40
MIAMI            86  75  90  75 / + 60 60 30
NAPLES           84  79  88  77 / 90 40 50 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067-FLZ068-
     FLZ069-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-FLZ075-FLZ168-
     FLZ172-FLZ173-FLZ174.

     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-
     FLZ074.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FLZ069-FLZ075-FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173-
     FLZ174.

AM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AMZ610-AMZ630-AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-
     AMZ671.

GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GMZ656-GMZ657-GMZ676.

&&

TINGLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
738 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-192200-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
738 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...FAY NOW INLAND MOVING TOWARD THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA...
...TORNADO WATCH MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 4 PM EDT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEE THE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE MIAMI NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO GET DETAILS ABOUT THE WEATHER EFFECTS ON SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM TROPICAL STORM FAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY RISKS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM FAY
AFFECTS SOUTH FLORIDA.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1137 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     TROPICAL STORM   LAKE WORTH              26.62N 80.07W
08/19/2008                   PALM BEACH         FL   MESONET

            LKW REPORTED WIND GUST OF 34 KTS AT 14Z.

1025 AM     TROPICAL STORM   KEY BISCAYNE            25.69N 80.16W
08/19/2008                   MIAMI-DADE         FL   MESONET

            FWY REPORTED WIND GUST OF 53 KTS AT 1425Z.

1040 AM     TROPICAL STORM   TURKEY PT               25.39N 80.31W
08/19/2008                   MIAMI-DADE         FL   MESONET

            XTKY REPORTED WIND GUST OF 37 KTS AT 1440Z.

1045 AM     TROPICAL STORM   5 NW ROTENBERGER WILDLI 26.45N 80.89W
08/19/2008                   HENDRY             FL   MESONET

            STA5WX REPORTED 42 KTS WIND GUST AT 1445Z.

1045 AM     TROPICAL STORM   12 N MILE MARKER 30 ON  26.33N 80.54W
08/19/2008                   BROWARD            FL   MESONET

            S7WX REPORTED WIND GUST OF 38 KTS AT 1445Z.

1045 AM     TROPICAL STORM   11 SE BRIGHTON SEMINOLE 26.96N 80.94W
08/19/2008                   AMZ610             FL   MESONET

            L005 REPORTED WIND GUST OF 40 KTS AT 1445Z.

1045 AM     TROPICAL STORM   MOORE HAVEN             26.83N 81.10W
08/19/2008                   GLADES             FL   MESONET

            MRHV REPORTED WIND GUST OF 37 AT 1445Z.

1045 AM     TROPICAL STORM   6 SSW ROTENBERGER WILDL 26.33N 80.88W
08/19/2008                   BROWARD            FL   MESONET

            ROTNWX REPORTED WIND GUST OF 36 KTS AT 1445Z.

1045 AM     TROPICAL STORM   1 E MICCOSUKEE SERVICE  26.17N 80.83W
08/19/2008                   BROWARD            FL   MESONET

            S140W REPORTED WIND GUST OF 35 KTS AT 1445Z.

1045 AM     TROPICAL STORM   LA BELLE                26.76N 81.44W
08/19/2008                   HENDRY             FL   MESONET

            LBLLC REPORTED WIND GUST OF 45 KTS AT 1445Z.

1045 AM     TROPICAL STORM   10 NW PAHOKEE           26.90N 80.79W
08/19/2008                   AMZ610             FL   MESONET

            LZ40 REPORTED WIND GUST OF 36 KTS AT 1445Z.

1045 AM     TROPICAL STORM   8 SW LION COUNTRY SAFAR 26.62N 80.44W
08/19/2008                   PALM BEACH         FL   MESONET

            WIND GUST OF 35 KTS REPORTED BY MESONET SITE AT 1445Z.

1045 AM     TROPICAL STORM   6 WNW BIG CYPRESS RESER 26.32N 81.07W
08/19/2008                   HENDRY             FL   MESONET

            BCSI REPORTED WIND GUST OF 36 KTS AT 1445Z.

1100 AM     TROPICAL STORM   VIRGINIA KEY            25.75N 80.16W
08/19/2008                   MIAMI-DADE         FL   MESONET

            VIK REPORTED WIND GUST OF 36 KTS AT 15Z.

&&

RIVERA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1142 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     TROPICAL STORM   LA BELLE                26.76N 81.44W
08/19/2008                   HENDRY             FL   MESONET

            LBLLC REPORTED WIND GUST OF 45 MPH AT 1445Z.

&&

RIVERA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1143 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     TROPICAL STORM   MOORE HAVEN             26.83N 81.10W
08/19/2008                   GLADES             FL   MESONET

            MRHV REPORTED WIND GUST OF 37 MPH AT 1445Z.

&&

RIVERA

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