Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Miami, FL

000
WWUS52 KMFL 231912
SVSMFL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
310 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008

FLC011-099-231930-
/O.CON.KMFL.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-080323T1930Z/
PALM BEACH FL-BROWARD FL-
310 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL BROWARD AND SOUTH CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTIES...

AT 306 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO
ADVANCE WARNING. PREPARE TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN AN INTERIOR
ROOM IN THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOUSE OR BUSINESS IF A TORNADO IS
SPOTTED.

LAT...LON 2626 8034 2633 8060 2649 8063 2659 8031
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 270DEG 22KT 2639 8043

$$

GS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1010 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008

.UPDATE...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED FROM EVERGLADES CITY
NORTHEAST TO WEST PALM BEACH WITH A WEAK LOW ALONG THE TROUGH OVER
EVERGLADES CITY THIS MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA.

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE COLD
FRONT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND ALSO PUSH THE THROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS BY TONIGHT.

THE MORNING MIA SOUNDING ALSO CAME IN WITH PWAT VALUE AROUND 1.60
INCHES...WHILE THE TBW MORNING SOUNDINGS WAS AROUND 1 INCH. SO
WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE EAST COAST AREAS AND THE
SCATTERED POPS FOR THE WEST COAST AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
DECREASING THEM TO SCATTERED EAST COAST AND REMOVING THEM FOR THE
WEST COAST AREAS THIS EVENING.

THE MIA MORNING SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED THE 500 MB TEMP TO BE -12C
THIS MORNING. SO WILL ALSO ADD THE WORDING OF A FEW STRONG STORMS
TO THE EAST COAST AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ZONES AND THE HWO.

.AVIATION...
FAIRLY UNCERTAIN WIND FORECAST TODAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION. FOR KPBI AND KAPF...NORTH OF
THE FRONT...GENERAL WEAK NE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY POSSIBLY BECOMING
ONSHORE AT EACH TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. FOR KFXE/KFLL...LIGHT SE
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE WESTERLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. FOR KOPF-KMIA-KTMB...LIGHT SW
WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME SE THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND THEN WESTERLY THIS EVENING AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ALL
EASTERN TERMINALS WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY TSRA AS TSTMS DEVELOP
BY MIDDAY. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT PINPOINTING EXACT TIME/LOCATION OF CONDITIONS IS DIFFICULT AND
WILL AMEND TAFS AS LATEST TRENDS DICTATE.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLAN.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.AVIATION...65/GS

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008/

DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ACTIVE WX DAY IS EXPECTED FOR S FLA
ESPECIALLY THE ALONG THE E CST WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. A WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
GOFMEX WILL MOVE ACROSS S FLA LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO A JET MAX THAT
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION. ALL OF THIS IN ADDITION TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE BACK S BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING. THIS
FRONT MOVED NORTH AS A WARM FRONT YESTERDAY AND HAS STALLED NEAR
LAKE OKEE WHERE AS STATED WILL BEGIN ITS TRACK BACK S AS A COLD
FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND THE LOCALLY RUN WRF MODEL SHOW CONVECTION
FIRING UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY LATE THIS MORNING ALONG THE E CST
METRO AREA AND THEN MOVING OFF THE E CST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IT IS FOR THIS REASON I HAVE DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS THE LIKELY POPS
FOR THE EAST COAST AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL IS PRETTY MUCH OVER FOR THE W CST/INTERIOR ZONES
AND HAVE ALSO DEPICTED THIS IN THE GRIDS. ALL THE MODELS SHOW
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE SE U.S. WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT
OFF THE SE CST BY 00Z WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR LATE
MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED FOR THE
NW ZONES...AROUND 50 IN THE NAPLES AREA TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE E
CST. THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT E
INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY MODIFYING THE AIR MASS SIGNIFICANTLY.
THE GFS KEEPS A RATHER DRY PATTERN HOWEVER SO NO RAIN IS IN THE
FCST FOR NOW.

AVIATION...FRONT OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...AND IFR POSSIBLE BUT MOSTLY BRIEF. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES OF
TIMING/LOCATION KEPT TSRA OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CIGS WILL
PREDOMINATE AT AROUND 5K FT...BUT LOWER IN SHRA. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN THE WIND DIRECTION
FCST AS MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...AND A LOT WILL DEPEND ON
CONVECTION SET UP AS WELL. OVERALL TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL
BE FOR A LIGHT/VAR WIND TO BECOME NW BY EVENING.

MARINE...WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ANY CRITICAL LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT THEN BUILD TO 8 FEET BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS INCREASE IN SPEED BEHIND THE SECONDARY SURGE. THE SEAS IN
THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS WILL ALSO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL INCREASE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE THERE. SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO CALM IN THE GULF ON TUESDAY AS WINDS DIMINISH BUT
REMAIN HIGH IN THE GULF STREAM BEFORE SUBSIDING ON WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ITS SECONDARY
SURGE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO AROUND 35 PERCENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND COASTAL COLLIER
ZONES. MODIFICATION OF THIS AIR MASS IS ANTICIPATED BY MID WEEK.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...30/KOB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...57/DG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
957 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-240200-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
957 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008

...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY, SOME STRONG EAST COAST METRO...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE EAST COAST METRO...
...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ACROSS
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL DUE TO THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE.

FLOODING: LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AGAIN
ACROSS PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES TODAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY AGAIN COULD EXCEED 3 INCHES IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. THIS
RAINFALL WOULD LEAD TO STREET FLOODING AND FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED
LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY IF THE HEAVY RAINS HIT THE SAME AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL ON SATURDAY.

WATERSPOUTS: THE WIND PROFILE IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAVORABLE FOR
WATERSPOUT FORMATION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND BISCAYNE BAY
TODAY.

WIND: GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH COULD ACCOMPANY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON.

HAIL: HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TODAY.

TORNADOES: THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT A BRIEF OR WEAK TORNADO
COULD FORM ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS, IF A SEA BREEZE CAN
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MARINE OUTLOOK: WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY ON MONDAY WHILE
STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS IN THE
GULF STREAM, REACHING 7 TO 8 FEET BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE VERY HAZARDOUS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING ON
WEDNESDAY.

RIP CURRENT OUTLOOK: THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS A STEADY
EASTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK: LOW TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S ACROSS GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING,
WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE MID 30S POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES, ANY
FLOODING, OR GUSTY WINDS OVER 40 MPH INTO THIS EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

STRASSBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
113 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008

FLZ066-070-231815-
HENDRY FL-INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL-
113 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL HENDRY COUNTY...

AT 110 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTH OF HENDRY CORRECTIONAL I/A/P...
MOVING EAST AT 16 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT...

BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE INDIAN RESERVATION...

STATE ROUTE 833
STATE ROUTE 846

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...DIME-SIZED
HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF THESE ARE POSSIBLE.
LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES
AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH CAN
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2657 8088 2627 8088 2632 8114 2636 8126
      2647 8127 2657 8131
TIME...MOT...LOC 1713Z 273DEG 14KT 2643 8123

GS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
144 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008

FLZ073-074-173-174-231830-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL-METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL-
INLAND MIAMI-DADE FL-COASTAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL-
144 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...

AT 140 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CUTLER BAY TO 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROYAL PALM RANGER STATION...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT...

PRINCETON...
BLACK PT...
HOMESTEAD MIAMI SPEEDWAY...
HOMESTEAD BAYFRONT PARK...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. U.S. 1 AND CARD SOUND ROAD WILL ALSO BE
AFFECTED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PERRINE TO HOMESTEAD GENERAL AVIATION
AIRPORT.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF THESE ARE POSSIBLE.
LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES
AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH CAN
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2553 8031 2553 8032 2550 8033 2549 8032
      2549 8033 2546 8033 2544 8031 2536 8032
      2524 8046 2529 8079 2562 8033 2561 8030
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 270DEG 17KT 2557 8030 2532 8066

GS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
206 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008

FLZ066-067-231845-
HENDRY FL-INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
206 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN HENDRY AND WESTERN PALM
BEACH COUNTIES...

AT 202 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTENBERGER WILDLIFE
MANAGEMENT AREA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT...

HOLEY LAND WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THIS STORM WILL APPROACH U.S. 27 BETWEEN THE BROWARD PALM BEACH
BORDER AND OKEELANTA BETWEEN 230 AND 245 PM. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALERT
AT THAT TIME.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF THESE ARE POSSIBLE.
LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES
AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH CAN
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

SOME WEAK ROTATION HAS BEEN INDICATED WITH THIS STORM. WHILE A
TORNADO DOES NOT APPEAR IMMINENT...ONE COULD STILL FORM WITH LITTLE
OR NO ADVANCED WARNING. STAY ALERT IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

LAT...LON 2659 8065 2634 8051 2634 8098 2659 8098
TIME...MOT...LOC 1806Z 267DEG 22KT 2644 8087

GS